Today / Lithuania - 1 Lyga / Transinvest 2 vs Jonava

Transinvest 2 vs Jonava Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Matchday 22 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 12:00

Transinvest 2

PPG 0.90 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWLL

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Jonava

PPG 0.91 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLLW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 60.3% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-18.8%0-26.7%0-33.4%0-4+1.8%1 1-07.6%1-111.7%1-28.9%1-34.6%1-4+2.4%2 2-05.1%2-17.7%2-25.9%2-33.0%2-4+1.6%3 3-02.2%3-13.4%3-22.6%3-31.3%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.5%4+-21.2%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.5% 25.0% 4.00 +46.0%

Draw 24.8% 30.3% 3.30 -10.9%

Away win 38.7% 57.8% 1.73 -33.1%

Over 2.5 59.7% 57.8% 1.73 +3.3%

Over 3.5 36.7% 41.2% 2.43 -10.8%

BTTS 60.3% 60.6% 1.65 -0.5%

Home O1.5 37.4% 35.1% 2.85 +6.6%

Away O1.5 47.9% 59.2% 1.69 -19.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 80 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -40.3%

Bet Hit 38%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 42%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob60.3%

A 39% / xG 1.3-1.5 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 2–1 7.7%

#3 1–2✓ 8.9%

#4 1–0 7.6%

#5 0–1 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Transinvest 21.3

Jonava1.5

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.7%

Form & verdict PPG

TRANSINVEST 2 · PPG 0.90

JONAVA · PPG 0.91

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.20 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Transinvest 2 (H) 36.5%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +46.0%

Draw 24.8%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -10.9%

Jonava (A) 38.7%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -33.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Transinvest 2 face Jonava in Lithuania - 1 Lyga on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Transinvest 2 a 37% chance, the draw 25% and Jonava 39%, so Jonava are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Transinvest 2 and 1.5 for Jonava (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Transinvest 2 are averaging 0.90 points per game versus 0.91 for Jonava. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +22.0%. This match finished 1-2.

Transinvest 2 vs Jonava Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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