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FA Šiauliai II vs Minija Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Matchday 22 ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 16:00

FA Šiauliai II

PPG 0.90 · HOME

LAST 5

WDLWL

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Minija

PPG 2.27 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWWW

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 72.8% vs bookmaker-implied 78.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.2%0-19.0%0-212.7%0-311.9%0-4+16.8%1 1-02.0%1-15.6%1-27.9%1-37.4%1-4+10.5%2 2-00.6%2-11.8%2-22.5%2-32.3%2-4+3.3%3 3-00.1%3-10.4%3-20.5%3-30.5%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 11.3% 13.3% 7.50 -9.2%

Draw 16.0% 19.0% 5.25 -9.6%

Away win 72.8% 78.7% 1.27 -7.5%

Over 2.5 64.2% 69.4% 1.44 -7.5%

Over 3.5 43.2% 50.5% 1.98 -14.5%

BTTS 48.2% 53.5% 1.87 -9.9%

Home O1.5 30.9% 28.6% 3.50 +8.2%

Away O1.5 69.0% 76.3% 1.31 -9.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 80 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -40.3%

Bet Hit 38%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 4 60%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)2.8 BTTS prob48.2%

A 73% / xG 0.6-2.8 / O2.5 64% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 12.7%

#2 0–3 11.9%

#3 1–1 5.6%

#4 0–4 8.4%

#5 0–1 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FA Šiauliai II0.6

Minija2.8

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.2% · O3.5 PROB 43.2%

Form & verdict PPG

FA ŠIAULIAI II · PPG 0.90

MINIJA · PPG 2.27

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

90%

UPSET_VALUE

xG gap -2.20 for Away, form 0.90 vs 2.27

Win probability 1X2

FA Šiauliai II (H) 11.3%

ODDS 7.50 · IMPLIED 13.3% EV -9.2%

Draw 16.0%

ODDS 5.25 · IMPLIED 19.0% EV -9.6%

Minija (A) 72.8%

ODDS 1.27 · IMPLIED 78.7% EV -7.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

FA Šiauliai II face Minija in Lithuania - 1 Lyga on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FA Šiauliai II a 11% chance, the draw 16% and Minija 73%, so Minija are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.6 for FA Šiauliai II and 2.8 for Minija (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FA Šiauliai II are averaging 0.90 points per game versus 2.27 for Minija. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +8.2%. This match finished 1-2.

FA Šiauliai II vs Minija Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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