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BFA vs Babrungas Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Matchday 23 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 17:00

BFA

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDWD

UPCOMING

Babrungas

PPG 2.36 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWDW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.3%0-117.0%0-211.8%0-35.5%0-4+2.6%1 1-08.7%1-112.1%1-28.4%1-33.9%1-4+1.8%2 2-03.1%2-14.3%2-23.0%2-31.4%2-4+0.6%3 3-00.7%3-11.0%3-20.7%3-30.3%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.6% 34.7% 2.88 -19.2%

Draw 26.9% 32.8% 3.05 -10.8%

Away win 49.5% 44.4% 2.25 +11.4%

Over 2.5 43.2% 50.8% 1.97 -14.9%

Over 3.5 22.2% 29.9% 3.35 -15.4%

BTTS 48.0% 57.1% 1.75 -16.0%

Home O1.5 30.8% — — —

Away O1.5 42.2% 44.8% 2.23 -5.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 80 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -40.3%

Bet Hit 38%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 35%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob48.0%

A 50% / xG 0.7-1.4 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 17.0%

#2 0–0 12.3%

#3 1–1 12.1%

#4 0–2 11.8%

#5 1–0 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

BFA0.7

Babrungas1.4

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.2% · O3.5 PROB 22.2%

Form & verdict PPG

BFA · PPG 2.00

BABRUNGAS · PPG 2.36

⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.68 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

BFA (H) 23.6%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -19.2%

Draw 26.9%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV -10.8%

Babrungas (A) 49.5%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +11.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

BFA face Babrungas in Lithuania - 1 Lyga on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives BFA a 24% chance, the draw 27% and Babrungas 50%, so Babrungas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for BFA and 1.4 for Babrungas (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, BFA are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 2.36 for Babrungas.

BFA vs Babrungas Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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