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Tauras vs BFA Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Matchday 22 ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 13:00

Tauras

PPG 2.40 · HOME

LAST 5

DLWDD

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

BFA

PPG 1.30 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWDWD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.3%0-14.2%0-22.1%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-09.3%1-19.1%1-24.5%1-31.5%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.0%2-19.9%2-24.9%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-07.2%3-17.1%3-23.5%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-06.5%4+-16.4%4+-23.2%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.4% 54.1% 1.85 -1.2%

Draw 22.4% 27.0% 3.70 -10.3%

Away win 24.1% 31.3% 3.20 -13.7%

Over 2.5 59.7% 62.5% 1.60 -4.5%

Over 3.5 36.7% 44.4% 2.25 -17.4%

BTTS 54.3% 68.5% 1.46 -20.7%

Home O1.5 63.5% 58.5% 1.71 +8.6%

Away O1.5 29.7% 47.6% 2.10 -22.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 80 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -40.3%

Bet Hit 38%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.3%

H 53% / xG 2.2-1.0 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.1%

#2 2–0 10.0%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–2 4.5%

#5 1–0 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tauras2.2

BFA1.0

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.7%

Form & verdict PPG

TAURAS · PPG 2.40

BFA · PPG 1.30

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.17 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Tauras (H) 53.4%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -1.2%

Draw 22.4%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -10.3%

BFA (A) 24.1%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -13.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tauras face BFA in Lithuania - 1 Lyga on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tauras a 53% chance, the draw 22% and BFA 24%, so Tauras are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Tauras and 1.0 for BFA (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tauras are averaging 2.40 points per game versus 1.30 for BFA. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +13.2%. This match finished 2-2.

Tauras vs BFA Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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