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Žalgiris II vs Transinvest 2 Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Matchday 21 ·Tuesday, August 25, 2026, 17:00

Žalgiris II

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWWW

4 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Transinvest 2

PPG 0.90 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWLL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 77.3% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0% — a clear edge.

+12.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.3%0-12.0%0-20.9%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-06.6%1-15.8%1-22.6%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-09.5%2-18.4%2-23.7%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-09.2%3-18.2%3-23.6%3-31.1%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-013.7%4+-112.1%4+-25.4%4+-31.6%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 69.0% 70.4% 1.42 -2.0%

Draw 15.9% 23.1% 4.33 -18.7%

Away win 15.2% 19.0% 5.25 -12.1%

Over 2.5 68.2% 65.4% 1.53 +4.3%

Over 3.5 45.0% 50.0% 2.00 -10.0%

BTTS 55.0% 68.5% 1.46 -19.7%

Home O1.5 77.3% 69.0% 1.45 +12.1%

Away O1.5 25.7% 32.3% 3.10 -12.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 80 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -40.3%

Bet Hit 38%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 68%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-3

xG (home)2.9 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob55.0%

H 69% / xG 2.9-0.9 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 9.5%

#2 3–0 9.2%

#3 2–1 8.4%

#4 3–1 8.2%

#5 1–1 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Žalgiris II2.9

Transinvest 20.9

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.2% · O3.5 PROB 45.0%

Form & verdict PPG

ŽALGIRIS II · PPG 2.00

TRANSINVEST 2 · PPG 0.90

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.02 for Home, form 2.00 vs 0.90 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Žalgiris II (H) 69.0%

ODDS 1.42 · IMPLIED 70.4% EV -2.0%

Draw 15.9%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -18.7%

Transinvest 2 (A) 15.2%

ODDS 5.25 · IMPLIED 19.0% EV -12.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Žalgiris II face Transinvest 2 in Lithuania - 1 Lyga on Tuesday, August 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Žalgiris II a 69% chance, the draw 16% and Transinvest 2 15%, so Žalgiris II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.9 for Žalgiris II and 0.9 for Transinvest 2 (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Žalgiris II are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.90 for Transinvest 2. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +12.1%. This match finished 4-3.

Žalgiris II vs Transinvest 2 Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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