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Ekranas vs Be1 NFA Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Matchday 22 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 14:00

Ekranas

PPG 0.70 · HOME

LAST 5

DWLLL

0 – 5

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Be1 NFA

PPG 1.55 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWWW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 60.0% vs bookmaker-implied 63.3%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.7%0-19.1%0-28.9%0-35.7%0-4+4.4%1 1-05.2%1-110.2%1-29.9%1-36.4%1-4+4.9%2 2-02.9%2-15.7%2-25.5%2-33.6%2-4+2.7%3 3-01.1%3-12.1%3-22.1%3-31.3%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.7%4+-20.7%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.0% 23.1% 4.33 -0.3%

Draw 21.7% 25.0% 4.00 -7.9%

Away win 55.3% 62.5% 1.60 -11.5%

Over 2.5 60.6% 62.5% 1.60 -3.0%

Over 3.5 37.9% 43.5% 2.30 -12.8%

BTTS 60.0% 63.3% 1.58 -5.2%

Home O1.5 31.0% 36.4% 2.75 -14.8%

Away O1.5 56.9% 66.7% 1.50 -14.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 80 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -40.3%

Bet Hit 38%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-5

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob60.0%

A 55% / xG 1.1-1.9 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.2%

#2 1–2 9.9%

#3 0–2 8.9%

#4 0–1 9.1%

#5 2–1 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ekranas1.1

Be1 NFA1.9

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.6% · O3.5 PROB 37.9%

Form & verdict PPG

EKRANAS · PPG 0.70

BE1 NFA · PPG 1.55

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

xG gap -0.83 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Ekranas (H) 23.0%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -0.3%

Draw 21.7%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -7.9%

Be1 NFA (A) 55.3%

ODDS 1.60 · IMPLIED 62.5% EV -11.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ekranas face Be1 NFA in Lithuania - 1 Lyga on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ekranas a 23% chance, the draw 22% and Be1 NFA 55%, so Be1 NFA are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Ekranas and 1.9 for Be1 NFA (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ekranas are averaging 0.70 points per game versus 1.55 for Be1 NFA. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +2.0%. This match finished 0-5.

Ekranas vs Be1 NFA Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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