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Kauno Žalgiris II vs Hegelmann II Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Matchday 22 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 15:00

Kauno Žalgiris II

PPG 0.90 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLWW

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Hegelmann II

PPG 0.70 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLWL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 59.9% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.3%0-17.5%0-24.5%0-31.8%0-4+0.7%1 1-09.8%1-111.8%1-27.1%1-32.8%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.7%2-19.3%2-25.6%2-32.2%2-4+0.9%3 3-04.1%3-14.9%3-22.9%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-12.7%4+-21.6%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.8% 48.8% 2.05 -6.1%

Draw 24.6% 27.0% 3.70 -5.4%

Away win 29.7% 36.4% 2.75 -11.0%

Over 2.5 59.7% 63.7% 1.57 -6.3%

Over 3.5 36.7% 42.0% 2.38 -12.7%

BTTS 59.9% 67.6% 1.48 -11.3%

Home O1.5 46.7% 55.2% 1.81 -15.5%

Away O1.5 35.5% 46.5% 2.15 -23.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 80 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -40.3%

Bet Hit 38%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob59.9%

H 46% / xG 1.6-1.2 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 1–0 9.8%

#4 2–0 7.7%

#5 1–2 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kauno Žalgiris II1.6

Hegelmann II1.2

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.7%

Form & verdict PPG

KAUNO ŽALGIRIS II · PPG 0.90

HEGELMANN II · PPG 0.70

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.37 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Kauno Žalgiris II (H) 45.8%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -6.1%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -5.4%

Hegelmann II (A) 29.7%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -11.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kauno Žalgiris II face Hegelmann II in Lithuania - 1 Lyga on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kauno Žalgiris II a 46% chance, the draw 25% and Hegelmann II 30%, so Kauno Žalgiris II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Kauno Žalgiris II and 1.2 for Hegelmann II (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kauno Žalgiris II are averaging 0.90 points per game versus 0.70 for Hegelmann II. This match finished 3-0.

Kauno Žalgiris II vs Hegelmann II Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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