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Garliava vs Babrungas Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Matchday 22 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 10:00

Garliava

PPG 1.50 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLLL 

0 – 1

FULL TIME

Babrungas

PPG 2.30 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWDW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-017.1%0-119.7%0-211.3%0-34.3%0-4+1.6%1 1-010.6%1-112.1%1-27.0%1-32.7%1-4+1.0%2 2-03.3%2-13.7%2-22.1%2-30.8%2-4+0.3%3 3-00.7%3-10.8%3-20.4%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 24.7% 20.8% 4.80 +11.1%

Draw 28.0% 28.6% 3.50 -1.2%

Away win 47.3% 63.7% 1.57 -25.7%

Over 2.5 37.8% 51.3% 1.95 -26.3%

Over 3.5 20.6% 30.8% 3.25 -19.8%

BTTS 43.7% 54.1% 1.85 -19.1%

Home O1.5 30.9% 25.6% 3.90 +20.5%

Away O1.5 33.0% 57.1% 1.75 -42.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 80 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -40.3%

Bet Hit 38%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob43.7%

A 47% / xG 0.6-1.1 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1✓ 19.7%

#2 0–0 17.1%

#3 1–0 10.6%

#4 0–2 11.3%

#5 1–1 12.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Garliava0.6

Babrungas1.1

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.8% · O3.5 PROB 20.6%

Form & verdict PPG

GARLIAVA · PPG 1.50

BABRUNGAS · PPG 2.30

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.53 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Garliava (H) 24.7%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV +11.1%

Draw 28.0%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -1.2%

Babrungas (A) 47.3%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -25.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Garliava face Babrungas in Lithuania - 1 Lyga on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Garliava a 25% chance, the draw 28% and Babrungas 47%, so Babrungas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.6 for Garliava and 1.1 for Babrungas (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Garliava are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 2.30 for Babrungas. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +20.5%. This match finished 0-1.

Garliava vs Babrungas Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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