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Jonava vs FA Šiauliai II Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Matchday 21 ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 16:00

Jonava

PPG 1.44 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLLW

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

FA Šiauliai II

PPG 0.20 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDLWL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 65.1% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.7%0-13.5%0-21.3%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-010.9%1-18.1%1-23.0%1-30.7%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.6%2-19.4%2-23.5%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.7%3-17.2%3-22.7%3-30.7%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-09.7%4+-17.2%4+-22.7%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.3% 65.4% 1.53 -1.6%

Draw 20.4% 24.4% 4.10 -9.8%

Away win 15.3% 22.2% 4.50 -18.7%

Over 2.5 59.7% 63.7% 1.57 -6.3%

Over 3.5 36.6% 45.9% 2.18 -20.2%

BTTS 53.0% 64.9% 1.54 -18.4%

Home O1.5 65.1% 67.6% 1.48 -3.6%

Away O1.5 17.9% 31.7% 3.15 -26.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 80 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -40.3%

Bet Hit 38%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob53.0%

H 64% / xG 2.3-0.7 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.6%

#2 1–1 8.1%

#3 3–0 9.7%

#4 1–0 10.9%

#5 2–1 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Jonava2.3

FA Šiauliai II0.7

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

JONAVA · PPG 1.44

FA ŠIAULIAI II · PPG 0.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.57 for Home, form 1.44 vs 0.20 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Jonava (H) 64.3%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -1.6%

Draw 20.4%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -9.8%

FA Šiauliai II (A) 15.3%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV -18.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Jonava face FA Šiauliai II in Lithuania - 1 Lyga on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Jonava a 64% chance, the draw 20% and FA Šiauliai II 15%, so Jonava are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Jonava and 0.7 for FA Šiauliai II (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Jonava are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 0.20 for FA Šiauliai II. This match finished 0-1.

Jonava vs FA Šiauliai II Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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