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Neptūną Klaipėda vs Atmosfera Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Matchday 22 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 14:00

Neptūną Klaipėda

PPG 1.80 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLLW

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Atmosfera

PPG 1.56 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDLDL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.5% vs bookmaker-implied 68.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.8%0-18.9%0-25.9%0-32.6%0-4+1.1%1 1-09.3%1-112.3%1-28.1%1-33.6%1-4+1.6%2 2-06.4%2-18.4%2-25.6%2-32.4%2-4+1.1%3 3-02.9%3-13.9%3-22.5%3-31.1%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.8%4+-21.2%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.6% 46.5% 2.15 -17.0%

Draw 26.3% 27.8% 3.60 -3.2%

Away win 35.2% 36.4% 2.75 -3.2%

Over 2.5 53.5% 57.8% 1.73 -7.4%

Over 3.5 31.5% 42.6% 2.35 -26.0%

BTTS 54.5% 68.0% 1.47 -19.9%

Home O1.5 38.0% 56.2% 1.78 -32.4%

Away O1.5 40.7% 47.6% 2.10 -14.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 80 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -40.3%

Bet Hit 38%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob54.5%

H 39% / xG 1.4-1.3 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 2–1 8.4%

#3 1–2 8.1%

#4 1–0 9.3%

#5 0–0 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Neptūną Klaipėda1.4

Atmosfera1.3

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 31.5%

Form & verdict PPG

NEPTŪNĄ KLAIPĖDA · PPG 1.80

ATMOSFERA · PPG 1.56

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.06 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Neptūną Klaipėda (H) 38.6%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -17.0%

Draw 26.3%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -3.2%

Atmosfera (A) 35.2%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -3.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Neptūną Klaipėda face Atmosfera in Lithuania - 1 Lyga on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Neptūną Klaipėda a 39% chance, the draw 26% and Atmosfera 35%, so Neptūną Klaipėda are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Neptūną Klaipėda and 1.3 for Atmosfera (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Neptūną Klaipėda are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 1.56 for Atmosfera. This match finished 3-1.

Neptūną Klaipėda vs Atmosfera Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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