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Be1 NFA vs Garliava Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Matchday 21 ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 15:30

Be1 NFA

PPG 2.25 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWWW

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Garliava

PPG 0.78 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLLL 

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.0% vs bookmaker-implied 64.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.4%0-17.0%0-23.4%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-012.2%1-111.6%1-25.6%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.1%2-19.6%2-24.6%2-31.5%2-4+0.4%3 3-05.5%3-15.3%3-22.5%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-13.2%4+-21.5%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.0% 48.8% 2.05 +4.5%

Draw 24.7% 26.7% 3.75 -4.4%

Away win 24.4% 35.7% 2.80 -19.0%

Over 2.5 51.9% 58.8% 1.70 -11.8%

Over 3.5 30.9% 38.0% 2.63 -18.7%

BTTS 53.0% 64.1% 1.56 -17.3%

Home O1.5 47.7% 53.2% 1.88 -10.3%

Away O1.5 25.7% 43.1% 2.32 -24.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 80 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -40.3%

Bet Hit 38%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob53.0%

H 51% / xG 1.7-1.0 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 1–0 12.2%

#3 2–0✓ 10.1%

#4 2–1 9.6%

#5 0–0 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Be1 NFA1.7

Garliava1.0

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.9% · O3.5 PROB 30.9%

Form & verdict PPG

BE1 NFA · PPG 2.25

GARLIAVA · PPG 0.78

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.70 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Be1 NFA (H) 51.0%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV +4.5%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -4.4%

Garliava (A) 24.4%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -19.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Be1 NFA face Garliava in Lithuania - 1 Lyga on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Be1 NFA a 51% chance, the draw 25% and Garliava 24%, so Be1 NFA are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Be1 NFA and 1.0 for Garliava (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Be1 NFA are averaging 2.25 points per game versus 0.78 for Garliava. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +3.7%. This match finished 2-0.

Be1 NFA vs Garliava Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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