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Be1 NFA vs Kauno Žalgiris II Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Matchday 23 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 15:30

Be1 NFA

PPG 2.33 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWWW

UPCOMING

Kauno Žalgiris II

PPG 0.40 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLWW

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

xG gap +1.71 for Home, form 2.33 vs 0.40 - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.3%0-13.1%0-21.1%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-010.5%1-17.5%1-22.7%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-012.7%2-19.1%2-23.3%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-010.3%3-17.4%3-22.6%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-011.1%4+-17.9%4+-22.8%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 66.0% 73.5% 1.36 -10.2%

Draw 19.1% 22.2% 4.50 -8.4%

Away win 14.9% 16.0% 6.25 -4.1%

Over 2.5 61.3% 70.9% 1.41 -13.6%

Over 3.5 39.2% 48.8% 2.05 -19.6%

BTTS 52.9% 62.1% 1.61 -14.8%

Home O1.5 66.3% — — —

Away O1.5 18.8% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 80 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -40.3%

Bet Hit 38%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob52.9%

H 66% / xG 2.4-0.7 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.7%

#2 3–0 10.3%

#3 1–1 7.5%

#4 1–0 10.5%

#5 2–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Be1 NFA2.4

Kauno Žalgiris II0.7

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.3% · O3.5 PROB 39.2%

Form & verdict PPG

BE1 NFA · PPG 2.33

KAUNO ŽALGIRIS II · PPG 0.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.71 for Home, form 2.33 vs 0.40 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Be1 NFA (H) 66.0%

ODDS 1.36 · IMPLIED 73.5% EV -10.2%

Draw 19.1%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV -8.4%

Kauno Žalgiris II (A) 14.9%

ODDS 6.25 · IMPLIED 16.0% EV -4.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Be1 NFA face Kauno Žalgiris II in Lithuania - 1 Lyga on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Be1 NFA a 66% chance, the draw 19% and Kauno Žalgiris II 15%, so Be1 NFA are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Be1 NFA and 0.7 for Kauno Žalgiris II (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Be1 NFA are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 0.40 for Kauno Žalgiris II.

Be1 NFA vs Kauno Žalgiris II Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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