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BFA vs Neptūną Klaipėda Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Matchday 21 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 12:00

BFA

PPG 1.90 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDWD

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Neptūną Klaipėda

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLLW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.5% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.8%0-19.2%0-25.4%0-32.1%0-4+0.8%1 1-010.7%1-112.6%1-27.5%1-32.9%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.3%2-18.7%2-25.1%2-32.0%2-4+0.8%3 3-03.4%3-14.0%3-22.3%3-30.9%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-11.8%4+-21.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.4% 47.6% 2.10 -6.8%

Draw 26.6% 28.6% 3.50 -4.1%

Away win 29.0% 35.7% 2.80 -11.3%

Over 2.5 50.4% 55.6% 1.80 -9.3%

Over 3.5 30.2% 40.0% 2.50 -24.5%

BTTS 54.5% 65.4% 1.53 -16.6%

Home O1.5 37.8% 51.8% 1.93 -27.1%

Away O1.5 35.7% 47.6% 2.10 -25.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 80 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -40.3%

Bet Hit 38%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.5%

H 44% / xG 1.4-1.2 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 1–0 10.7%

#3 2–1 8.7%

#4 0–0 7.8%

#5 2–0✓ 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

BFA1.4

Neptūną Klaipėda1.2

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 30.2%

Form & verdict PPG

BFA · PPG 1.90

NEPTŪNĄ KLAIPĖDA · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.19 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

BFA (H) 44.4%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -6.8%

Draw 26.6%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -4.1%

Neptūną Klaipėda (A) 29.0%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -11.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

BFA face Neptūną Klaipėda in Lithuania - 1 Lyga on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives BFA a 44% chance, the draw 27% and Neptūną Klaipėda 29%, so BFA are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for BFA and 1.2 for Neptūną Klaipėda (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, BFA are averaging 1.90 points per game versus 2.00 for Neptūną Klaipėda. This match finished 2-0.

BFA vs Neptūną Klaipėda Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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