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Dainava vs Žalgiris II Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Matchday 22 ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 15:00

Dainava

PPG 2.25 · HOME

LAST 5

DWDDL

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Žalgiris II

PPG 1.10 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.2%0-14.7%0-22.2%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-010.7%1-19.7%1-24.4%1-31.3%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.9%2-19.9%2-24.5%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-07.4%3-16.8%3-23.1%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-06.1%4+-15.5%4+-22.5%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.6% 58.8% 1.70 -8.9%

Draw 22.5% 26.7% 3.75 -9.4%

Away win 23.9% 26.3% 3.80 -5.5%

Over 2.5 59.7% 58.8% 1.70 +1.5%

Over 3.5 36.7% 43.5% 2.30 -15.6%

BTTS 54.4% 63.3% 1.58 -14.1%

Home O1.5 58.2% 58.8% 1.70 -1.1%

Away O1.5 25.7% 35.1% 2.85 -16.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 80 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -40.3%

Bet Hit 38%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob54.4%

H 54% / xG 2.0-0.9 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.7%

#2 2–0 10.9%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 10.7%

#5 1–2 4.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dainava2.0

Žalgiris II0.9

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.7%

Form & verdict PPG

DAINAVA · PPG 2.25

ŽALGIRIS II · PPG 1.10

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.14 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Dainava (H) 53.6%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -8.9%

Draw 22.5%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -9.4%

Žalgiris II (A) 23.9%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -5.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dainava face Žalgiris II in Lithuania - 1 Lyga on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dainava a 54% chance, the draw 23% and Žalgiris II 24%, so Dainava are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Dainava and 0.9 for Žalgiris II (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dainava are averaging 2.25 points per game versus 1.10 for Žalgiris II. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +1.5%. This match finished 0-1.

Dainava vs Žalgiris II Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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