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Dainava vs Atmosfera Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Matchday 21 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 12:00

Dainava

PPG 2.36 · HOME

LAST 5

DWDDL

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Atmosfera

PPG 1.62 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDLDL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.8 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 53.9% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.3%0-16.2%0-23.0%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-011.3%1-111.0%1-25.4%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.1%2-19.8%2-24.8%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-06.0%3-15.8%3-22.9%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-04.0%4+-13.9%4+-21.9%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.5% 52.4% 1.91 +0.3%

Draw 24.3% 28.6% 3.50 -9.0%

Away win 23.2% 31.3% 3.20 -15.5%

Over 2.5 53.9% 54.1% 1.85 -0.3%

Over 3.5 31.6% 38.5% 2.60 -17.8%

BTTS 53.0% 64.9% 1.54 -18.4%

Home O1.5 48.8% 51.5% 1.94 -5.3%

Away O1.5 27.8% 46.7% 2.14 -24.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 80 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -40.3%

Bet Hit 38%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob53.0%

H 52% / xG 1.8-1.0 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 11.0%

#2 2–0 10.1%

#3 2–1 9.8%

#4 1–0 11.3%

#5 0–0 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dainava1.8

Atmosfera1.0

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

DAINAVA · PPG 2.36

ATMOSFERA · PPG 1.62

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.81 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Dainava (H) 52.5%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV +0.3%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -9.0%

Atmosfera (A) 23.2%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -15.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dainava face Atmosfera in Lithuania - 1 Lyga on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dainava a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Atmosfera 23%, so Dainava are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Dainava and 1.0 for Atmosfera (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dainava are averaging 2.36 points per game versus 1.62 for Atmosfera. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +6.8%. This match finished 1-1.

Dainava vs Atmosfera Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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