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Babrungas vs Tauras Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Matchday 21 ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 15:00

Babrungas

PPG 2.80 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWDW

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Tauras

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLWDD

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 59.3% vs bookmaker-implied 52.6% — a clear edge.

+12.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.2%0-15.6%0-21.4%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-019.0%1-19.4%1-22.3%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-016.1%2-17.9%2-22.0%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-09.1%3-14.5%3-21.1%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-05.6%4+-12.8%4+-20.7%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.3% 52.6% 1.90 +12.7%

Draw 24.4% 28.6% 3.50 -8.8%

Away win 16.3% 30.8% 3.25 -28.2%

Over 2.5 44.8% 54.1% 1.85 -17.1%

Over 3.5 25.6% 34.7% 2.88 -15.8%

BTTS 43.6% 61.7% 1.62 -29.4%

Home O1.5 48.8% 49.5% 2.02 -1.4%

Away O1.5 16.4% 42.0% 2.38 -36.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 80 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -40.3%

Bet Hit 38%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob43.6%

H 59% / xG 1.7-0.5 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 19.0%

#2 2–0 16.1%

#3 0–0 11.2%

#4 1–1✓ 9.4%

#5 3–0 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Babrungas1.7

Tauras0.5

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.8% · O3.5 PROB 25.6%

Form & verdict PPG

BABRUNGAS · PPG 2.80

TAURAS · PPG 1.40

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.20 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Babrungas (H) 59.3%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV +12.7%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -8.8%

Tauras (A) 16.3%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -28.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Babrungas face Tauras in Lithuania - 1 Lyga on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Babrungas a 59% chance, the draw 24% and Tauras 16%, so Babrungas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Babrungas and 0.5 for Tauras (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Babrungas are averaging 2.80 points per game versus 1.40 for Tauras. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +10.2%. This match finished 1-1.

Babrungas vs Tauras Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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