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Jonava vs Dainava Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Matchday 23 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 16:00

Jonava

PPG 1.30 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLLW

UPCOMING

Dainava

PPG 1.12 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWDDL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.3%0-111.6%0-26.5%0-32.4%0-4+0.9%1 1-011.9%1-113.3%1-27.5%1-32.8%1-4+1.0%2 2-06.8%2-17.6%2-24.3%2-31.6%2-4+0.6%3 3-02.6%3-12.9%3-21.6%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.1%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.4% 30.8% 3.25 +18.3%

Draw 27.9% 30.8% 3.25 -5.6%

Away win 35.7% 50.5% 1.98 -29.3%

Over 2.5 44.5% 57.5% 1.74 -22.6%

Over 3.5 25.5% 35.7% 2.80 -17.2%

BTTS 49.9% 61.3% 1.63 -18.7%

Home O1.5 31.2% — — —

Away O1.5 33.2% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 80 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -40.3%

Bet Hit 38%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 23%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob49.9%

H 36% / xG 1.1-1.1 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 0–0 10.3%

#3 1–0 11.9%

#4 0–1 11.6%

#5 2–1 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Jonava1.1

Dainava1.1

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.5% · O3.5 PROB 25.5%

Form & verdict PPG

JONAVA · PPG 1.30

DAINAVA · PPG 1.12

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.02, combined xG 2.27 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Jonava (H) 36.4%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV +18.3%

Draw 27.9%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -5.6%

Dainava (A) 35.7%

ODDS 1.98 · IMPLIED 50.5% EV -29.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Jonava face Dainava in Lithuania - 1 Lyga on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Jonava a 36% chance, the draw 28% and Dainava 36%, so Jonava are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Jonava and 1.1 for Dainava (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Jonava are averaging 1.30 points per game versus 1.12 for Dainava.

Jonava vs Dainava Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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