Liga Pro
▼ THIN-EDGE LEAGUE
SHARP MARKET — MODEL EDGE BELOW BREAK-EVEN HERE
// Model accuracy
How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 62 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.
43.5%
1X2
27/62
56.5%
O/U 2.5
35/62
58.1%
BTTS
36/62
56.5%
Exact score
35/62
// Published picks
Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.
21
Settled
52.4%
Hit rate
11/21
1.80
Avg odds
-4.8%
ROI
-1.0u
Picks by market
HOME WIN · N=12 58.3% HIT · AVG 1.74 · +1.8% ROI
BTTS · N=4 25.0% HIT · AVG 1.78 · -54.3% ROI
AWAY WIN · N=2 50.0% HIT · AVG 2.19 · +27.0% ROI
OVER 2.5 · N=2 50.0% HIT · AVG 1.93 · -7.5% ROI
HOME O1.5 · N=1 100.0% HIT · AVG 1.57 · +57.0% ROI
Picks by verdict tier
🎯 Strong bet
2
Bets
0%
Hit
-100.0%
ROI
✓ Solid
4
Bets
50%
Hit
-14.5%
ROI
✓ Fair / Caution
7
Bets
43%
Hit
-6.9%
ROI
⚠ Low confidence
8
Bets
75%
Hit
+25.7%
ROI
Match log
DateMatchPickEVFTResult
July 2026 // 6 PICKS · 2 HIT · 4 MISS
19 JUL Tecnico U. vs Aucas — NO PICK 0–1 —19 JUL Guayaquil City vs Manta Home +15% 1–0 HIT18 JUL D. Cuenca vs U. Catolica BTTS -5% 0–2 MISS18 JUL LDU Quito vs Leones Norte — NO PICK 0–1 —16 JUL Aucas vs I. del Valle BTTS -8% 0–3 MISS15 JUL Libertad vs Tecnico U. — NO PICK 1–0 —15 JUL U. Catolica vs LDU Quito Over 2.5 +0% 1–0 MISS15 JUL Leones Norte vs D. Cuenca — NO PICK 1–1 —14 JUL Macara vs Mushuc Runa — NO PICK 2–1 —12 JUL LDU Quito vs Libertad Home -27% 0–0 MISS12 JUL D. Cuenca vs Aucas — NO PICK 0–1 —12 JUL Emelec vs Barcelona SC — NO PICK 0–0 —11 JUL Manta vs Orense — NO PICK 0–0 —11 JUL Mushuc Runa vs I. del Valle Over 2.5 +18% 1–4 HIT11 JUL Guayaquil City vs Delfin — NO PICK 2–1 —