Liga Pro

ECUADOR · 129 MATCHES TRACKED · 17 APR 2026 – 4 SEPT 2026

▲ STRONG-EDGE LEAGUE

MODEL EDGE ABOVE BREAK-EVEN IN THIS LEAGUE

Upcoming Liga Pro predictions

3 FIXTURES WITH ODDS · MODEL PICK, PROBABILITY AND EV PER MATCH

DateMatchPickProbOddsEV

3 SEPT19:00 Universidad Catolica vs Aucas Home 54% 1.84 -0%3 SEPT21:30 Leones del Norte vs Orense SC Over 2.5 52% 2.35 +22%4 SEPT00:00 Libertad vs Emelec Home 51% 2.34 +19%

// Model accuracy

How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 124 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.

50.8%

1X2

63/124

58.1%

O/U 2.5

72/124

51.6%

BTTS

64/124

55.6%

Exact score

69/124

// Published picks

Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.

Settled

61.9%

Hit rate

13/21

1.94

Avg odds

+14.8%

ROI

+3.1u

Picks by market

FLAT 1U · BREAK-EVEN AT IMPLIED % MARKED ▎· SMALL SAMPLES — READ WITH CARE

HOME WIN · N=11 63.6% HIT · AVG 1.91 · +11.0% ROI

OVER 2.5 · N=4 50.0% HIT · AVG 1.99 · -3.8% ROI

BTTS · N=3 66.7% HIT · AVG 1.92 · +28.3% ROI

AWAY WIN · N=2 50.0% HIT · AVG 2.19 · +27.0% ROI

HOME O1.5 · N=1 100.0% HIT · AVG 1.65 · +65.0% ROI

Picks by verdict tier

VERDICTS NORMALIZED INTO CONFIDENCE TIERS · LOW-CONFIDENCE FLAG OVERRIDES

🎯 Strong bet

Bets

Hit

-100.0%

ROI

✓ Solid

Bets

50%

Hit

-7.5%

ROI

✓ Fair / Caution

Bets

55%

Hit

+10.8%

ROI

⚠ Low confidence

Bets

100%

Hit

+67.7%

ROI

Match log

124 RESOLVED · GROUPED BY MONTH · — MEANS NO PICK PUBLISHED

DateMatchPickEVFTResult

September 2026 // 3 PICKS · 2 HIT · 1 MISS

3 SEPT Barcelona SC vs Independiente del Valle BTTS -3% 2–1 HIT 2 SEPT LDU de Quito vs Mushuc Runa SC — NO PICK 0–0 —2 SEPT Macara vs Manta FC Home -4% 4–3 HIT 2 SEPT Deportivo Cuenca vs Guayaquil City FC BTTS -3% 1–0 MISS 1 SEPT Delfin SC vs Tecnico Universitario — NO PICK 1–0 —

August 2026 // 5 PICKS · 3 HIT · 2 MISS

30 AUG Manta FC vs Barcelona SC — NO PICK 2–0 —30 AUG Aucas vs Libertad Over 2.5 -2% 1–0 MISS 30 AUG Orense SC vs Macara BTTS +6% 1–2 HIT 30 AUG Emelec vs Leones del Norte — NO PICK 2–1 —29 AUG Tecnico Universitario vs Deportivo Cuenca — NO PICK 3–1 —29 AUG Independiente del Valle vs Universidad Catolica HO1.5 2–2 HIT 29 AUG Guayaquil City FC vs LDU de Quito — NO PICK 2–1 —28 AUG Mushuc Runa SC vs Delfin SC Home -19% 1–0 HIT 25 AUG Libertad vs Macara BTTS -6% 1–0 MISS 24 AUG LDU de Quito vs Emelec — NO PICK 2–0 —