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LDU de Quito vs Mushuc Runa SC Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Matchday 28 ·Wednesday, September 2, 2026, 00:00

LDU de Quito

PPG 1.62 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWWL

0 – 0

FULL TIME

Mushuc Runa SC

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDDW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.2%0-19.5%0-23.7%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-016.2%1-112.6%1-24.9%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.8%2-18.3%2-23.2%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-04.8%3-13.7%3-21.4%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-11.6%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.3% 59.2% 1.69 -20.1%

Draw 29.2% 26.7% 3.75 +5.7%

Away win 23.5% 21.5% 4.65 +5.6%

Over 2.5 42.2% 51.3% 1.95 -17.7%

Over 3.5 20.9% 29.0% 3.45 -16.7%

BTTS 48.0% 54.1% 1.85 -11.2%

Home O1.5 38.7% 54.6% 1.83 -29.2%

Away O1.5 21.8% 26.7% 3.75 -10.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 120 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 55%

ROI 14.8%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.0%

H 47% / xG 1.3-0.8 / U2.5 42% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.2%

#2 1–1 12.6%

#3 0–0✓ 12.2%

#4 2–0 10.8%

#5 0–1 9.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

LDU de Quito1.3

Mushuc Runa SC0.8

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.2% · O3.5 PROB 20.9%

Form & verdict PPG

LDU DE QUITO · PPG 1.62

MUSHUC RUNA SC · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.55 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

LDU de Quito (H) 47.3%

ODDS 1.69 · IMPLIED 59.2% EV -20.1%

Draw 29.2%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV +5.7%

Mushuc Runa SC (A) 23.5%

ODDS 4.65 · IMPLIED 21.5% EV +5.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

LDU de Quito face Mushuc Runa SC in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Wednesday, September 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives LDU de Quito a 47% chance, the draw 29% and Mushuc Runa SC 24%, so LDU de Quito are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for LDU de Quito and 0.8 for Mushuc Runa SC (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 42% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, LDU de Quito are averaging 1.62 points per game versus 1.00 for Mushuc Runa SC. This match finished 0-0.

LDU de Quito vs Mushuc Runa SC Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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