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Libertad vs Macara Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Matchday 26 ·Tuesday, August 25, 2026, 00:00

Libertad

PPG 1.92 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDWL

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Macara

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDLW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 50.9% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.2%0-111.6%0-25.5%0-31.8%0-4+0.5%1 1-014.0%1-113.4%1-26.4%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-08.1%2-17.7%2-23.7%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-03.1%3-13.0%3-21.4%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.1%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.4% 30.8% 3.25 +41.0%

Draw 27.3% 30.8% 3.25 -6.8%

Away win 29.4% 45.5% 2.20 -21.2%

Over 2.5 44.8% 45.5% 2.20 -1.4%

Over 3.5 27.2% 23.8% 4.20 +8.5%

BTTS 50.9% 54.1% 1.85 -5.8%

Home O1.5 31.2% 31.3% 3.20 -0.2%

Away O1.5 25.7% 42.6% 2.35 -23.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 121 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 55%

ROI 14.8%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob50.9%

H 43% / xG 1.2-1.0 / U2.5 45% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0✓ 14.0%

#2 1–1 13.4%

#3 0–0 12.2%

#4 0–1 11.6%

#5 2–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Libertad1.2

Macara1.0

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.8% · O3.5 PROB 27.2%

Form & verdict PPG

LIBERTAD · PPG 1.92

MACARA · PPG 1.50

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.20, combined xG 2.11 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Libertad (H) 43.4%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV +41.0%

Draw 27.3%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -6.8%

Macara (A) 29.4%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -21.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Libertad face Macara in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Tuesday, August 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Libertad a 43% chance, the draw 27% and Macara 29%, so Libertad are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Libertad and 1.0 for Macara (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Libertad are averaging 1.92 points per game versus 1.50 for Macara. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +23.5%. This match finished 1-0.

Libertad vs Macara Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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