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Guayaquil City FC vs LDU de Quito Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Matchday 27 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 21:00

Guayaquil City FC

PPG 1.38 · HOME

LAST 5

LDDWW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

LDU de Quito

PPG 1.54 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWWL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-018.5%0-115.6%0-26.6%0-31.9%0-4+0.5%1 1-015.6%1-113.2%1-25.5%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-06.6%2-15.5%2-22.3%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-01.8%3-11.6%3-20.7%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.4%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.9% 28.6% 3.50 +25.7%

Draw 32.3% 30.3% 3.30 +6.6%

Away win 31.7% 48.1% 2.08 -34.1%

Over 2.5 37.3% 45.5% 2.20 -17.9%

Over 3.5 18.0% 23.8% 4.20 -14.6%

BTTS 46.0% 52.6% 1.90 -12.6%

Home O1.5 30.9% 30.3% 3.30 +2.0%

Away O1.5 23.6% 44.4% 2.25 -28.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 121 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 55%

ROI 14.8%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob46.0%

D 32% / xG 0.8-0.8 / U2.5 37% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 18.5%

#2 1–0 15.6%

#3 0–1 15.6%

#4 1–1 13.2%

#5 2–0 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Guayaquil City FC0.8

LDU de Quito0.8

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.3% · O3.5 PROB 18.0%

Form & verdict PPG

GUAYAQUIL CITY FC · PPG 1.38

LDU DE QUITO · PPG 1.54

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.00, combined xG 1.69 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Guayaquil City FC (H) 35.9%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV +25.7%

Draw 32.3%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV +6.6%

LDU de Quito (A) 31.7%

ODDS 2.08 · IMPLIED 48.1% EV -34.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Guayaquil City FC face LDU de Quito in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Guayaquil City FC a 36% chance, the draw 32% and LDU de Quito 32%, so Guayaquil City FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Guayaquil City FC and 0.8 for LDU de Quito (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Guayaquil City FC are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 1.54 for LDU de Quito. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +2.0%. This match finished 2-1.

Guayaquil City FC vs LDU de Quito Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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