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Universidad Catolica vs Aucas Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Matchday 28 ·Thursday, September 3, 2026, 19:00

Universidad Catolica

PPG 2.23 · HOME

LAST 5

WLDWD

UPCOMING

Aucas

PPG 1.69 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLWW

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 54.3% vs bookmaker-implied 55.2%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.8%0-16.2%0-22.4%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-013.8%1-110.8%1-24.3%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-012.1%2-19.6%2-23.8%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-07.1%3-15.6%3-22.2%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.7%4+-13.7%4+-21.4%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.3% 55.2% 1.81 -1.7%

Draw 24.1% 27.8% 3.60 -7.9%

Away win 21.6% 23.8% 4.20 -5.6%

Over 2.5 51.4% 52.6% 1.90 -2.3%

Over 3.5 31.6% 30.8% 3.25 +2.7%

BTTS 51.6% 57.1% 1.75 -9.7%

Home O1.5 49.9% 54.1% 1.85 -7.7%

Away O1.5 23.0% 30.3% 3.30 -14.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 120 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 55%

ROI 14.8%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 31%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob51.6%

H 54% / xG 1.8-0.8 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 1–0 13.8%

#3 2–0 12.1%

#4 2–1 9.6%

#5 0–0 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Universidad Catolica1.8

Aucas0.8

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.4% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

UNIVERSIDAD CATOLICA · PPG 2.23

AUCAS · PPG 1.69

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.97 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Universidad Catolica (H) 54.3%

ODDS 1.81 · IMPLIED 55.2% EV -1.7%

Draw 24.1%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -7.9%

Aucas (A) 21.6%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -5.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Universidad Catolica face Aucas in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Thursday, September 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Universidad Catolica a 54% chance, the draw 24% and Aucas 22%, so Universidad Catolica are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Universidad Catolica and 0.8 for Aucas (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Universidad Catolica are averaging 2.23 points per game versus 1.69 for Aucas. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +5.3%.

Universidad Catolica vs Aucas Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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