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Tecnico Universitario vs Deportivo Cuenca Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Matchday 27 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 00:00

Tecnico Universitario

PPG 1.23 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLWL

3 – 1

FULL TIME

Deportivo Cuenca

PPG 1.23 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLDL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.6%0-111.1%0-24.9%0-31.4%0-4+0.4%1 1-015.0%1-113.2%1-25.8%1-31.7%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.0%2-17.9%2-23.5%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-03.6%3-13.1%3-21.4%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.2%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.4% 45.5% 2.20 -4.5%

Draw 27.3% 36.4% 2.75 -15.0%

Away win 29.3% 30.8% 3.25 -2.9%

Over 2.5 44.8% 41.7% 2.40 +7.5%

Over 3.5 25.6% 22.2% 4.50 +9.1%

BTTS 49.2% 50.0% 2.00 -1.6%

Home O1.5 32.2% 38.2% 2.62 -15.6%

Away O1.5 25.6% 28.6% 3.50 -6.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 121 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 55%

ROI 14.8%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob49.2%

H 43% / xG 1.2-0.9 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.0%

#2 1–1 13.2%

#3 0–0 12.6%

#4 0–1 11.1%

#5 2–0 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tecnico Universitario1.2

Deportivo Cuenca0.9

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.8% · O3.5 PROB 25.6%

Form & verdict PPG

TECNICO UNIVERSITARIO · PPG 1.23

DEPORTIVO CUENCA · PPG 1.23

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.32, combined xG 2.07 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Tecnico Universitario (H) 43.4%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -4.5%

Draw 27.3%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -15.0%

Deportivo Cuenca (A) 29.3%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -2.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tecnico Universitario face Deportivo Cuenca in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tecnico Universitario a 43% chance, the draw 27% and Deportivo Cuenca 29%, so Tecnico Universitario are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Tecnico Universitario and 0.9 for Deportivo Cuenca (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tecnico Universitario are averaging 1.23 points per game versus 1.23 for Deportivo Cuenca. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +9.1%. This match finished 3-1.

Tecnico Universitario vs Deportivo Cuenca Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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