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Independiente del Valle vs Universidad Catolica Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Matchday 27 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 18:00

Independiente del Valle

PPG 2.38 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWWD

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Universidad Catolica

PPG 1.08 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLDWD

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 63.4% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.8%0-14.2%0-22.3%0-30.8%0-4+0.3%1 1-08.3%1-19.1%1-25.0%1-31.8%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.0%2-19.8%2-25.4%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-06.5%3-17.1%3-23.9%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-05.8%4+-16.4%4+-23.5%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.2% 61.3% 1.63 -11.7%

Draw 22.2% 25.3% 3.95 -7.4%

Away win 23.6% 20.4% 4.90 +9.4%

Over 2.5 63.1% 58.8% 1.70 +7.3%

Over 3.5 39.3% 35.7% 2.80 +10.0%

BTTS 60.8% 58.8% 1.70 +3.4%

Home O1.5 63.4% 60.6% 1.65 +4.6%

Away O1.5 33.0% 29.9% 3.35 +10.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 121 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 55%

ROI 14.8%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob60.8%

H 54% / xG 2.2-1.1 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.1%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 9.0%

#4 1–2 5.0%

#5 3–1 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Independiente del Valle2.2

Universidad Catolica1.1

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.1% · O3.5 PROB 39.3%

Form & verdict PPG

INDEPENDIENTE DEL VALLE · PPG 2.38

UNIVERSIDAD CATOLICA · PPG 1.08

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.06 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Independiente del Valle (H) 54.2%

ODDS 1.63 · IMPLIED 61.3% EV -11.7%

Draw 22.2%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -7.4%

Universidad Catolica (A) 23.6%

ODDS 4.90 · IMPLIED 20.4% EV +9.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Independiente del Valle face Universidad Catolica in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Independiente del Valle a 54% chance, the draw 22% and Universidad Catolica 24%, so Independiente del Valle are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Independiente del Valle and 1.1 for Universidad Catolica (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Independiente del Valle are averaging 2.38 points per game versus 1.08 for Universidad Catolica. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +10.5%. This match finished 2-2.

Independiente del Valle vs Universidad Catolica Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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