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Mushuc Runa SC vs Delfin SC Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Matchday 27 ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 20:30

Mushuc Runa SC

PPG 1.54 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDDW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Delfin SC

PPG 0.46 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLLW

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 52.1% vs bookmaker-implied 64.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.6%0-18.4%0-22.8%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-017.7%1-111.8%1-24.0%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.4%2-18.3%2-22.8%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-05.8%3-13.9%3-21.3%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-11.8%4+-20.6%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.1% 64.1% 1.56 -18.7%

Draw 26.6% 26.7% 3.75 -0.1%

Away win 21.3% 16.1% 6.20 +19.2%

Over 2.5 43.1% 50.0% 2.00 -13.8%

Over 3.5 20.7% 28.6% 3.50 -16.5%

BTTS 47.2% 51.3% 1.95 -8.0%

Home O1.5 39.8% 57.1% 1.75 -30.3%

Away O1.5 18.2% 22.2% 4.50 -10.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 121 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 55%

ROI 14.8%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob47.2%

H 52% / xG 1.4-0.7 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0✓ 17.7%

#2 0–0 12.6%

#3 2–0 12.4%

#4 1–1 11.8%

#5 0–1 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mushuc Runa SC1.4

Delfin SC0.7

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.1% · O3.5 PROB 20.7%

Form & verdict PPG

MUSHUC RUNA SC · PPG 1.54

DELFIN SC · PPG 0.46

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.73 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Mushuc Runa SC (H) 52.1%

ODDS 1.56 · IMPLIED 64.1% EV -18.7%

Draw 26.6%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -0.1%

Delfin SC (A) 21.3%

ODDS 6.20 · IMPLIED 16.1% EV +19.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Mushuc Runa SC face Delfin SC in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mushuc Runa SC a 52% chance, the draw 27% and Delfin SC 21%, so Mushuc Runa SC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Mushuc Runa SC and 0.7 for Delfin SC (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mushuc Runa SC are averaging 1.54 points per game versus 0.46 for Delfin SC. This match finished 1-0.

Mushuc Runa SC vs Delfin SC Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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