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Orense SC vs Macara Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Matchday 27 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 20:30

Orense SC

PPG 1.38 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWLL

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Macara

PPG 1.38 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDLW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.4% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.7%0-19.0%0-26.0%0-32.7%0-4+1.2%1 1-09.1%1-112.2%1-28.2%1-33.7%1-4+1.7%2 2-06.2%2-18.3%2-25.6%2-32.5%2-4+1.1%3 3-02.8%3-13.8%3-22.5%3-31.1%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.7%4+-21.2%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.1% 43.5% 2.30 -12.4%

Draw 26.8% 32.8% 3.05 -11.0%

Away win 35.2% 30.8% 3.25 +14.4%

Over 2.5 53.3% 42.6% 2.35 +25.3%

Over 3.5 31.5% 22.2% 4.50 +41.8%

BTTS 54.4% 51.3% 1.95 +6.1%

Home O1.5 38.0% 39.2% 2.55 -3.1%

Away O1.5 40.9% 30.3% 3.30 +35.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 120 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 55%

ROI 14.8%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob54.4%

H 38% / xG 1.4-1.3 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 2–1 8.3%

#3 1–2✓ 8.2%

#4 0–0 6.7%

#5 1–0 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Orense SC1.4

Macara1.3

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.3% · O3.5 PROB 31.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ORENSE SC · PPG 1.38

MACARA · PPG 1.38

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.02 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Orense SC (H) 38.1%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -12.4%

Draw 26.8%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV -11.0%

Macara (A) 35.2%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV +14.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Orense SC face Macara in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Orense SC a 38% chance, the draw 27% and Macara 35%, so Orense SC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Orense SC and 1.3 for Macara (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Orense SC are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 1.38 for Macara. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +41.8%. This match finished 1-2.

Orense SC vs Macara Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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