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Barcelona SC vs Independiente del Valle Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Matchday 28 ·Thursday, September 3, 2026, 00:00

Barcelona SC

PPG 2.08 · HOME

LAST 5

DLDWL

UPCOMING

Independiente del Valle

PPG 2.77 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWWD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.9% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.4%0-110.2%0-27.0%0-33.2%0-4+1.5%1 1-09.2%1-112.5%1-28.6%1-33.9%1-4+1.8%2 2-05.6%2-17.7%2-25.3%2-32.4%2-4+1.1%3 3-02.3%3-13.2%3-22.2%3-31.0%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.3%4+-20.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.0% 31.7% 3.15 +13.4%

Draw 25.5% 29.9% 3.35 -8.8%

Away win 38.5% 45.5% 2.20 -15.3%

Over 2.5 53.8% 47.6% 2.10 +13.0%

Over 3.5 31.7% 26.0% 3.85 +22.1%

BTTS 55.9% 54.6% 1.83 +2.3%

Home O1.5 34.0% 33.9% 2.95 +0.3%

Away O1.5 42.2% 44.4% 2.25 -5.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 120 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 55%

ROI 14.8%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 27%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob55.9%

A 38% / xG 1.2-1.4 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 2–1 7.7%

#3 1–2 8.6%

#4 0–1 10.2%

#5 1–0 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Barcelona SC1.2

Independiente del Valle1.4

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.7%

Form & verdict PPG

BARCELONA SC · PPG 2.08

INDEPENDIENTE DEL VALLE · PPG 2.77

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.14 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Barcelona SC (H) 36.0%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV +13.4%

Draw 25.5%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -8.8%

Independiente del Valle (A) 38.5%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -15.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Barcelona SC face Independiente del Valle in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Thursday, September 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Barcelona SC a 36% chance, the draw 26% and Independiente del Valle 39%, so Independiente del Valle are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Barcelona SC and 1.4 for Independiente del Valle (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Barcelona SC are averaging 2.08 points per game versus 2.77 for Independiente del Valle. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +22.1%.

Barcelona SC vs Independiente del Valle Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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