Today / Ecuador - Liga Pro / Leones del Norte vs Orense SC

Leones del Norte vs Orense SC Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Matchday 28 ·Thursday, September 3, 2026, 21:30

Leones del Norte

PPG 1.54 · HOME

LAST 5

DLWLL

UPCOMING

Orense SC

PPG 0.92 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.5 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 53.8% vs bookmaker-implied 42.6% — a clear edge.

+26.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.9%0-16.8%0-22.9%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-013.3%1-111.4%1-24.9%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-011.2%2-19.6%2-24.1%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-06.3%3-15.4%3-22.3%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.8%4+-13.3%4+-21.4%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.0% 45.0% 2.22 +17.7%

Draw 24.3% 31.7% 3.15 -14.1%

Away win 22.7% 30.3% 3.30 -15.0%

Over 2.5 53.8% 42.6% 2.35 +26.4%

Over 3.5 31.6% 22.2% 4.50 +42.2%

BTTS 52.9% 51.3% 1.95 +3.1%

Home O1.5 49.9% 40.8% 2.45 +22.3%

Away O1.5 24.5% 29.4% 3.40 -10.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 120 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 55%

ROI 14.8%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 33%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.9%

H 53% / xG 1.7-0.9 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 1–0 13.3%

#3 2–0 11.2%

#4 2–1 9.6%

#5 0–0 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Leones del Norte1.7

Orense SC0.9

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

LEONES DEL NORTE · PPG 1.54

ORENSE SC · PPG 0.92

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.82 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Leones del Norte (H) 53.0%

ODDS 2.22 · IMPLIED 45.0% EV +17.7%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV -14.1%

Orense SC (A) 22.7%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -15.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Leones del Norte face Orense SC in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Thursday, September 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Leones del Norte a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Orense SC 23%, so Leones del Norte are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Leones del Norte and 0.9 for Orense SC (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Leones del Norte are averaging 1.54 points per game versus 0.92 for Orense SC. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +42.2%.

Leones del Norte vs Orense SC Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

More Ecuador - Liga Pro Predictions