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Deportivo Cuenca vs Guayaquil City FC Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Matchday 28 ·Wednesday, September 2, 2026, 21:30

Deportivo Cuenca

PPG 1.23 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLDL

UPCOMING

Guayaquil City FC

PPG 1.15 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDDWW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 49.9% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.5%0-112.0%0-25.7%0-31.8%0-4+0.5%1 1-014.0%1-113.4%1-26.4%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-07.9%2-17.5%2-23.6%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-02.9%3-12.8%3-21.3%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.0%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.6% 55.6% 1.80 -34.1%

Draw 27.7% 29.4% 3.40 -3.5%

Away win 35.7% 22.2% 4.50 +60.7%

Over 2.5 44.5% 45.5% 2.20 -2.1%

Over 3.5 26.0% 23.8% 4.20 +5.5%

BTTS 49.9% 51.3% 1.95 -2.7%

Home O1.5 31.2% 48.8% 2.05 -36.0%

Away O1.5 26.1% 25.0% 4.00 +2.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 120 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 55%

ROI 14.8%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 25%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob49.9%

H 37% / xG 1.1-1.0 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.4%

#2 0–1 12.0%

#3 0–0 12.5%

#4 1–0 14.0%

#5 1–2 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Deportivo Cuenca1.1

Guayaquil City FC1.0

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.5% · O3.5 PROB 26.0%

Form & verdict PPG

DEPORTIVO CUENCA · PPG 1.23

GUAYAQUIL CITY FC · PPG 1.15

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.17, combined xG 2.08 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Deportivo Cuenca (H) 36.6%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -34.1%

Draw 27.7%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -3.5%

Guayaquil City FC (A) 35.7%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV +60.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Deportivo Cuenca face Guayaquil City FC in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Wednesday, September 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Deportivo Cuenca a 37% chance, the draw 28% and Guayaquil City FC 36%, so Deportivo Cuenca are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Deportivo Cuenca and 1.0 for Guayaquil City FC (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Deportivo Cuenca are averaging 1.23 points per game versus 1.15 for Guayaquil City FC. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +27.4%.

Deportivo Cuenca vs Guayaquil City FC Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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