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LDU de Quito vs Emelec Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Matchday 26 ·Monday, August 24, 2026, 00:00

LDU de Quito

PPG 1.50 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWWL

2 – 0

FULL TIME

Emelec

PPG 0.83 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWLW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-017.5%0-19.8%0-22.8%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-020.7%1-111.6%1-23.3%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-012.2%2-16.9%2-21.9%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-04.8%3-12.7%3-20.8%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-11.0%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.1% 64.5% 1.55 -27.0%

Draw 31.2% 28.6% 3.50 +9.2%

Away win 21.7% 20.0% 5.00 +5.1%

Over 2.5 36.4% 50.0% 2.00 -27.2%

Over 3.5 18.0% 28.6% 3.50 -22.2%

BTTS 43.1% 52.4% 1.91 -17.7%

Home O1.5 32.0% 57.8% 1.73 -44.6%

Away O1.5 15.1% 22.2% 4.50 -19.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 121 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 55%

ROI 14.8%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 42%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob43.1%

H 47% / xG 1.2-0.6 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 43%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 20.7%

#2 0–0 17.5%

#3 1–1 11.6%

#4 2–0✓ 12.2%

#5 0–1 9.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

LDU de Quito1.2

Emelec0.6

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 36.4% · O3.5 PROB 18.0%

Form & verdict PPG

LDU DE QUITO · PPG 1.50

EMELEC · PPG 0.83

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.62 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

LDU de Quito (H) 47.1%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV -27.0%

Draw 31.2%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV +9.2%

Emelec (A) 21.7%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +5.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

LDU de Quito face Emelec in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Monday, August 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives LDU de Quito a 47% chance, the draw 31% and Emelec 22%, so LDU de Quito are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for LDU de Quito and 0.6 for Emelec (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 43% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, LDU de Quito are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.83 for Emelec. This match finished 2-0.

LDU de Quito vs Emelec Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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