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Macara vs Manta FC Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Matchday 28 ·Wednesday, September 2, 2026, 19:00

Macara

PPG 1.85 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDLW

UPCOMING

Manta FC

PPG 0.62 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLLW

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 63.8% vs bookmaker-implied 66.2%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.3%0-14.9%0-21.2%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-018.5%1-18.8%1-22.1%1-30.3%1-4+0.0%2 2-016.6%2-17.9%2-21.9%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-010.0%3-14.7%3-21.1%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-06.7%4+-13.2%4+-20.8%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.8% 66.2% 1.51 -3.7%

Draw 21.7% 25.6% 3.90 -9.2%

Away win 14.5% 15.4% 6.50 -3.5%

Over 2.5 50.4% 50.0% 2.00 +0.8%

Over 3.5 28.7% 28.2% 3.55 +1.1%

BTTS 42.6% 48.8% 2.05 -12.7%

Home O1.5 49.9% 57.8% 1.73 -13.7%

Away O1.5 14.0% 20.0% 5.00 -18.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 120 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 55%

ROI 14.8%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 43%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob42.6%

H 64% / xG 1.8-0.5 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 43%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 18.5%

#2 2–0 16.6%

#3 0–0 10.3%

#4 3–0 10.0%

#5 1–1 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Macara1.8

Manta FC0.5

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

MACARA · PPG 1.85

MANTA FC · PPG 0.62

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.32 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Macara (H) 63.8%

ODDS 1.51 · IMPLIED 66.2% EV -3.7%

Draw 21.7%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -9.2%

Manta FC (A) 14.5%

ODDS 6.50 · IMPLIED 15.4% EV -3.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Macara face Manta FC in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Wednesday, September 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Macara a 64% chance, the draw 22% and Manta FC 14%, so Macara are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Macara and 0.5 for Manta FC (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 43% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Macara are averaging 1.85 points per game versus 0.62 for Manta FC. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +1.1%.

Macara vs Manta FC Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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