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Emelec vs Leones del Norte Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Matchday 27 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 23:00

Emelec

PPG 1.69 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWLW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

Leones del Norte

PPG 1.15 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLWLL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.5%0-112.1%0-25.4%0-31.6%0-4+0.4%1 1-015.0%1-113.4%1-26.0%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-08.3%2-17.4%2-23.3%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-03.1%3-12.7%3-21.2%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.0%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.2% 54.3% 1.84 -22.4%

Draw 28.0% 29.9% 3.35 -3.7%

Away win 29.8% 23.0% 4.35 +17.8%

Over 2.5 43.1% 42.6% 2.35 +1.3%

Over 3.5 20.7% 22.2% 4.50 -4.1%

BTTS 47.6% 47.6% 2.10 -0.0%

Home O1.5 30.9% 46.5% 2.15 -33.6%

Away O1.5 25.7% 23.1% 4.33 +6.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 120 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 55%

ROI 14.8%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob47.6%

H 42% / xG 1.1-0.9 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.0%

#2 0–0 13.5%

#3 1–1 13.4%

#4 0–1 12.1%

#5 2–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Emelec1.1

Leones del Norte0.9

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.1% · O3.5 PROB 20.7%

Form & verdict PPG

EMELEC · PPG 1.69

LEONES DEL NORTE · PPG 1.15

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.21, combined xG 2.00 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Emelec (H) 42.2%

ODDS 1.84 · IMPLIED 54.3% EV -22.4%

Draw 28.0%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -3.7%

Leones del Norte (A) 29.8%

ODDS 4.35 · IMPLIED 23.0% EV +17.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Emelec face Leones del Norte in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Emelec a 42% chance, the draw 28% and Leones del Norte 30%, so Emelec are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Emelec and 0.9 for Leones del Norte (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Emelec are averaging 1.69 points per game versus 1.15 for Leones del Norte. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +12.9%. This match finished 2-1.

Emelec vs Leones del Norte Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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