Today / Ecuador - Liga Pro / Aucas vs Libertad

Aucas vs Libertad Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Matchday 27 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 18:00

Aucas

PPG 1.69 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLWW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Libertad

PPG 0.85 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDWL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.4 puts the goal expectation near the line. Model probability 50.5% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.3%0-18.2%0-23.6%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-013.9%1-112.3%1-25.4%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.3%2-19.1%2-24.0%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.1%3-14.5%3-22.0%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-12.3%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.7% 66.2% 1.51 -26.5%

Draw 27.2% 25.6% 3.90 +3.6%

Away win 24.1% 15.4% 6.50 +34.0%

Over 2.5 50.5% 51.3% 1.95 -1.5%

Over 3.5 28.7% 29.4% 3.40 -1.5%

BTTS 51.7% 51.3% 1.95 +0.8%

Home O1.5 40.1% 58.8% 1.70 -31.8%

Away O1.5 25.7% 21.1% 4.75 +13.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 120 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 55%

ROI 14.8%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob51.7%

H 49% / xG 1.5-0.9 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 1–0✓ 13.9%

#3 2–0 10.3%

#4 0–0 9.3%

#5 2–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Aucas1.5

Libertad0.9

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

AUCAS · PPG 1.69

LIBERTAD · PPG 0.85

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.61 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Aucas (H) 48.7%

ODDS 1.51 · IMPLIED 66.2% EV -26.5%

Draw 27.2%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV +3.6%

Libertad (A) 24.1%

ODDS 6.50 · IMPLIED 15.4% EV +34.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Aucas face Libertad in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Aucas a 49% chance, the draw 27% and Libertad 24%, so Aucas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Aucas and 0.9 for Libertad (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Aucas are averaging 1.69 points per game versus 0.85 for Libertad. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +34.4%. This match finished 1-0.

Aucas vs Libertad Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

More Ecuador - Liga Pro Predictions