Today / Ecuador - Liga Pro / Libertad vs Emelec

Libertad vs Emelec Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Matchday 28 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 00:00

Libertad

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDWL

UPCOMING

Emelec

PPG 0.77 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWLW

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 50.9% vs bookmaker-implied 41.3% — a clear edge.

+23.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.5%0-18.5%0-22.7%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-018.6%1-111.6%1-23.6%1-30.8%1-4+0.1%2 2-012.8%2-18.0%2-22.5%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-05.9%3-13.7%3-21.1%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-11.7%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.9% 41.3% 2.42 +23.2%

Draw 26.7% 31.7% 3.15 -9.5%

Away win 22.4% 33.9% 2.95 -20.3%

Over 2.5 42.7% 42.6% 2.35 +0.3%

Over 3.5 20.9% 22.2% 4.50 -3.6%

BTTS 48.0% 51.3% 1.95 -6.4%

Home O1.5 39.5% 37.7% 2.65 +4.7%

Away O1.5 15.6% 32.3% 3.10 -31.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 124 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 56%

ROI 14.8%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 38%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob48.0%

H 51% / xG 1.4-0.6 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 18.6%

#2 0–0 13.5%

#3 2–0 12.8%

#4 1–1 11.6%

#5 0–1 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Libertad1.4

Emelec0.6

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.7% · O3.5 PROB 20.9%

Form & verdict PPG

LIBERTAD · PPG 2.00

EMELEC · PPG 0.77

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.75 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Libertad (H) 50.9%

ODDS 2.42 · IMPLIED 41.3% EV +23.2%

Draw 26.7%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV -9.5%

Emelec (A) 22.4%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -20.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Libertad face Emelec in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Libertad a 51% chance, the draw 27% and Emelec 22%, so Libertad are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Libertad and 0.6 for Emelec (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Libertad are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.77 for Emelec. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +22.3%.

Libertad vs Emelec Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

More Ecuador - Liga Pro Predictions