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Manta FC vs Barcelona SC Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Matchday 27 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 00:00

Manta FC

PPG 0.69 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLLW

2 – 0

FULL TIME

Barcelona SC

PPG 0.92 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLDWL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-021.9%0-121.5%0-210.6%0-33.5%0-4+1.0%1 1-011.7%1-111.5%1-25.7%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-03.1%2-13.1%2-21.5%2-30.5%2-4+0.2%3 3-00.6%3-10.6%3-20.3%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.7% 26.7% 3.75 -6.7%

Draw 31.7% 33.3% 3.00 -4.9%

Away win 44.6% 52.4% 1.91 -14.8%

Over 2.5 34.2% 45.5% 2.20 -24.8%

Over 3.5 18.0% 25.0% 4.00 -16.8%

BTTS 42.6% 52.4% 1.91 -18.6%

Home O1.5 30.9% 26.7% 3.75 +15.9%

Away O1.5 28.6% 45.5% 2.20 -22.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 120 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 55%

ROI 14.8%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)0.5 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob42.6%

A 45% / xG 0.5-1.0 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 43%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 21.5%

#2 0–0 21.9%

#3 1–0 11.7%

#4 1–1 11.5%

#5 0–2 10.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Manta FC0.5

Barcelona SC1.0

COMBINED 1.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.2% · O3.5 PROB 18.0%

Form & verdict PPG

MANTA FC · PPG 0.69

BARCELONA SC · PPG 0.92

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.45, combined xG 1.52 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Manta FC (H) 23.7%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -6.7%

Draw 31.7%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -4.9%

Barcelona SC (A) 44.6%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -14.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Manta FC face Barcelona SC in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Manta FC a 24% chance, the draw 32% and Barcelona SC 45%, so Barcelona SC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.5 for Manta FC and 1.0 for Barcelona SC (1.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 43% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Manta FC are averaging 0.69 points per game versus 0.92 for Barcelona SC. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +15.9%. This match finished 2-0.

Manta FC vs Barcelona SC Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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