08:30
H
36.8% -20.9%
D
31.8% +6.5%
A
31.4% -5.8%
No bet
O2.5 42.0% · BTTS 49.9%
Score
1–1
0–1
SkippedFootball predictions today · Thu 30 Apr
205 graded O2.5 59% BTTS 57% 1X2 47% Full record →
12:00
H
31.0% +48.8%
D
31.7% +14.1%
A
37.3% -39.6%
BTTS
O2.5 42.2% · BTTS 50.0%
Score
1–1
2–4
Hit
11:00
H
28.1%
D
27.4%
A
44.5%
— no odds —
BTTS
O2.5 56.8% · BTTS 60.6%
Score
1–2
1–2
Hit
11:30
H
30.8% -16.8%
D
24.5% -13.0%
A
44.8% +0.8%
BTTS
O2.5 69.0% · BTTS 69.9%
Score
1–3
2–1
Hit
12:30
H
65.1% -18.6%
D
22.3% +11.5%
A
12.7% +1.6%
Home
O2.5 57.2% · BTTS 52.1%
Score
2–1
1–1
Miss13:00
H
60.8% -21.0%
D
23.9% +19.5%
A
15.3% -0.5%
Home
O2.5 56.0% · BTTS 53.8%
Score
2–1
6–0
Hit
15:00
H
41.1% +4.8%
D
33.5% -4.5%
A
25.4% -28.9%
No bet
O2.5 34.7% · BTTS 43.2%
Score
2–0
2–1
Skipped17:00
H
36.4% -25.4%
D
37.8% +11.5%
A
25.8% -8.4%
No bet
O2.5 24.0% · BTTS 34.1%
Score
2–0
2–1
Skipped16:00
H
27.7% +6.7%
D
29.0% -2.9%
A
43.3% -19.9%
BTTS
O2.5 50.6% · BTTS 55.9%
Score
1–2
2–1
Hit
16:00
H
29.3% -23.2%
D
26.7% -17.2%
A
44.0% +1.2%
BTTS
O2.5 59.7% · BTTS 62.9%
Score
1–2
0–0
Miss
16:00
H
63.8% +18.0%
D
23.1% -19.1%
A
13.1% -54.1%
Home
+18.0%
O2.5 55.0% · BTTS 50.9%
Score
2–1
0–1
Miss16:00
H
34.9% -9.3%
D
27.4% -10.9%
A
37.7% -10.3%
BTTS
O2.5 58.6% · BTTS 62.7%
Score
1–2
0–3
Miss16:00
H
69.0% +2.1%
D
20.4% -20.4%
A
10.7% -41.1%
Home
+2.1%
O2.5 59.6% · BTTS 51.3%
Score
2–1
1–2
Miss
16:00
H
29.6% +15.4%
D
27.5% +3.1%
A
42.9% -21.5%
BTTS
O2.5 57.2% · BTTS 61.1%
Score
1–2
1–3
Hit18:00
H
37.9% -1.5%
D
27.3% -7.2%
A
34.8% -11.3%
BTTS
+1.9%
O2.5 58.8% · BTTS 62.9%
Score
2–1
1–1
Hit
16:30
H
48.6% -14.0%
D
25.1% -0.9%
A
26.3% -8.0%
BTTS
+0.1%
O2.5 64.2% · BTTS 65.4%
Score
3–1
4–0
Miss
17:00
H
27.3%
D
22.6%
A
50.1%
— no odds —
O2.5
O2.5 74.0% · BTTS 72.9%
Score
1–3
0–2
Miss
17:00
H
34.2% -14.5%
D
32.2% +3.0%
A
33.6% -10.6%
No bet
O2.5 40.9% · BTTS 49.1%
Score
1–1
0–1
Skipped17:00
H
60.3%
D
20.0%
A
19.7%
— no odds —
O2.5
O2.5 77.0% · BTTS 72.3%
Score
3–2
1–3
Hit17:00
H
45.6%
D
18.7%
A
35.7%
— no odds —
O2.5
O2.5 90.4% · BTTS 87.3%
Score
3–2
1–1
Miss
17:30
H
58.6% -18.0%
D
26.4% +5.6%
A
15.0% +11.0%
Home
O2.5 47.0% · BTTS 47.1%
Score
3–0
1–2
Miss17:30
H
29.8% -7.6%
D
23.4% -11.1%
A
46.8% -8.7%
O2.5
+7.0%
O2.5 72.3% · BTTS 72.2%
Score
1–3
1–1
Miss
23:30
H
35.3%
D
41.2%
A
23.5%
— no odds —
No bet
O2.5 17.2% · BTTS 27.2%
Score
2–0
1–1
Skipped—
H
51.4%
D
23.5%
A
25.1%
— no odds —
O2.5
O2.5 69.3% · BTTS 68.8%
Score
3–1
1–3
Hit—
H
47.4%
D
32.5%
A
20.1%
— no odds —
No bet
O2.5 34.5% · BTTS 41.1%
Score
2–0
0–1
Skipped—
H
42.8%
D
32.5%
A
24.7%
— no odds —
No bet
O2.5 37.5% · BTTS 45.1%
Score
2–0
0–0
Skipped—
H
34.9%
D
32.7%
A
32.4%
— no odds —
No bet
O2.5 39.2% · BTTS 47.7%
Score
1–1
Pending
—
H
47.7%
D
26.5%
A
25.8%
— no odds —
BTTS
O2.5 58.5% · BTTS 61.2%
Score
2–1
Pending
—
H
44.7%
D
25.0%
A
30.2%
— no odds —
BTTS
O2.5 66.6% · BTTS 68.1%
Score
3–1
0–0
Miss—
H
7.4%
D
17.2%
A
75.4%
— no odds —
Away
O2.5 62.1% · BTTS 47.6%
Score
0–4
1–3
HitHow the model calls it
01 · Strength
Attack and defence ratings per team from recent form, weighted by opposition — the inputs behind expected goals.
02 · Poisson
Goal expectancies become a full scoreline matrix: win, draw, Over 2.5, BTTS and top correct scores from one distribution.
03 · Edge
Model probability vs live bookmaker odds. A positive gap is value, flagged on every outcome as +EV%. No edge, no bet.
Questions, answered straight
How accurate are these football predictions?
Every pick is graded automatically at full time and kept on the public record. The full history, including losing days, is on the Accuracy page.
What is a value bet?
A bet where the model's probability is higher than the probability implied by the bookmaker's odds. If the model says 49% and the odds imply 34%, that gap is the edge — shown as +EV% next to each outcome. Value bets can still lose; the point is being paid more than the risk is worth over hundreds of bets.
How does a Poisson model predict matches?
It estimates how many goals each team is expected to score from attack and defence strength, then computes the probability of every scoreline. Summing those scorelines gives win/draw/loss, Over/Under and BTTS probabilities from a single consistent model.
Are the predictions free?
Yes — every match, every league, every day.
Why does the model say "No bet" on some matches?
When no outcome clears the confidence threshold, the model passes. Skipping bad spots is part of how the hit rate stays honest — a tip site that picks every match is selling volume, not edge.