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Dijon vs Chateauroux Prediction— France - National 1

Regular Season - 32 ·Thursday, April 30, 2026, 17:30

Dijon

PPG 2.07 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Chateauroux

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 58.6% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.8%0-16.2%0-22.5%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-013.7%1-110.9%1-24.3%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-012.0%2-19.6%2-23.8%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-07.0%3-15.6%3-22.2%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.6%4+-13.7%4+-21.5%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 58.6% 71.4% 1.40 -18.0%

Draw 26.4% 25.0% 4.00 +5.6%

Away win 15.0% 13.5% 7.40 +11.0%

Over 2.5 47.0% 57.1% 1.75 -17.8%

Over 3.5 25.4% 35.1% 2.85 -27.6%

BTTS 47.1% 54.1% 1.85 -12.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 39%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -23.9%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob47.1%

H 59% / xG 1.8-0.8 / O2.5 47% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.9%

#2 1–0 13.7%

#3 2–0 12.0%

#4 2–1 9.6%

#5 0–0 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dijon1.8

Chateauroux0.8

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.0% · O3.5 PROB 25.4%

Form & verdict PPG

DIJON · PPG 2.07

CHATEAUROUX · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.07) vs P(Home)=58.6%

Win probability 1X2

Dijon (H) 58.6%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -18.0%

Draw 26.4%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +5.6%

Chateauroux (A) 15.0%

ODDS 7.40 · IMPLIED 13.5% EV +11.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dijon face Chateauroux in France - National 1 on Thursday, April 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dijon a 59% chance, the draw 26% and Chateauroux 15%, so Dijon are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Dijon and 0.8 for Chateauroux (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dijon are averaging 2.07 points per game versus 1.00 for Chateauroux. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +11.0%. This match finished 1-2.

Dijon vs Chateauroux Prediction— France - National 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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