Illertissen vs Bayern Munich B Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Bayern

Germany - Regionalliga - Bayern Bayern - 32 Vöhlin-Stadion· Illertissen Thursday, April 30, 2026 16:30

Illertissen PPG 1.67

4-0 MISS

Bayern Munich B PPG 0.93

Over3.5· +1.0% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Illertissen face Bayern Munich B in Germany - Regionalliga - Bayern on Thursday, April 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Illertissen a 49% chance, the draw 25% and Bayern Munich B 26%, so Illertissen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Illertissen and 1.4 for Bayern Munich B (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 65% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Illertissen are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 0.93 for Bayern Munich B. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +1.0%. This match finished 4-0.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 48.6%

Odds: 1.77 EV: -14.0%

Draw 25.1%

Odds: 3.95 EV: -0.9%

Away 26.3%

Odds: 3.50 EV: -8.0%

Model lean: BTTS

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 64.2% Odds: 1.55 -0.5%

Over 3.5 42.1% Odds: 2.40 +1.0%

BTTS 65.4% Odds: 1.53 +0.1%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 2-1 ✘

3rd 2-0 ✘

4th 1-2 ✘

5th 2-2 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Illertissen

1.92

Bayern Munich B

1.38

Model SuggestionBTTS +0.1% ROI TRACKS: BTTS
Tracked ROI market: BTTS. 
Raw EV leader: Over3.5(+1.0%)

League Track Record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5/Under 59%

BTTS/No 51%

Score Hit 28%

ROI -0.4%

Bet Hit 56% (16 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.67) > Away POOR (0.93)