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Illertissen vs Bayern Munich B Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Bayern

Bayern - 32 ·Thursday, April 30, 2026, 16:30

Illertissen

PPG 1.67 · HOME

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Bayern Munich B

PPG 0.93 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 65.4% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.7%0-15.1%0-23.5%0-31.6%0-4+0.8%1 1-07.0%1-19.8%1-26.8%1-33.1%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.8%2-19.4%2-26.5%2-33.0%2-4+1.4%3 3-04.3%3-16.0%3-24.2%3-31.9%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-03.2%4+-14.5%4+-23.1%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.6% 56.5% 1.77 -14.0%

Draw 25.1% 25.3% 3.95 -0.9%

Away win 26.3% 28.6% 3.50 -8.0%

Over 2.5 64.2% 64.5% 1.55 -0.5%

Over 3.5 42.1% 41.7% 2.40 +1.0%

BTTS 65.4% 65.4% 1.53 +0.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 28%

ROI -17.4%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob65.4%

H 49% / xG 1.9-1.4 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 65%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.8%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 2–0 6.8%

#4 1–2 6.8%

#5 2–2 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Illertissen1.9

Bayern Munich B1.4

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.2% · O3.5 PROB 42.1%

Form & verdict PPG

ILLERTISSEN · PPG 1.67

BAYERN MUNICH B · PPG 0.93

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.67) > Away POOR (0.93)

Win probability 1X2

Illertissen (H) 48.6%

ODDS 1.77 · IMPLIED 56.5% EV -14.0%

Draw 25.1%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -0.9%

Bayern Munich B (A) 26.3%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -8.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Illertissen face Bayern Munich B in Germany - Regionalliga - Bayern on Thursday, April 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Illertissen a 49% chance, the draw 25% and Bayern Munich B 26%, so Illertissen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Illertissen and 1.4 for Bayern Munich B (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 65% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Illertissen are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 0.93 for Bayern Munich B. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +1.0%. This match finished 4-0.

Illertissen vs Bayern Munich B Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Bayern

Match Preview & Prediction

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