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Neftci vs Qarabag Prediction— Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa

Regular Season - 21 ·Thursday, April 30, 2026, 16:00

Neftci

PPG 1.29 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Qarabag

PPG 2.23 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.9% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.7%0-110.2%0-27.8%0-33.9%0-4+2.1%1 1-07.9%1-112.1%1-29.2%1-34.6%1-4+2.5%2 2-04.7%2-17.1%2-25.4%2-32.7%2-4+1.5%3 3-01.8%3-12.8%3-22.1%3-31.1%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.1%4+-20.8%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.7% 26.0% 3.85 +6.7%

Draw 29.0% 29.9% 3.35 -2.9%

Away win 43.3% 54.1% 1.85 -19.9%

Over 2.5 50.6% 55.6% 1.80 -8.9%

Over 3.5 28.6% 33.3% 3.00 -14.2%

BTTS 55.9% 59.9% 1.67 -6.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 69%

ROI 23.6%

Bet Hit 74%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob55.9%

A 43% / xG 1.2-1.5 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 1–2 9.2%

#3 0–0 6.7%

#4 0–1 10.2%

#5 0–2 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Neftci1.2

Qarabag1.5

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.6% · O3.5 PROB 28.6%

Form & verdict PPG

NEFTCI · PPG 1.29

QARABAG · PPG 2.23

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.23) vs Home AVERAGE (1.29)

Win probability 1X2

Neftci (H) 27.7%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV +6.7%

Draw 29.0%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -2.9%

Qarabag (A) 43.3%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -19.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Neftci face Qarabag in Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa on Thursday, April 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Neftci a 28% chance, the draw 29% and Qarabag 43%, so Qarabag are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Neftci and 1.5 for Qarabag (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Neftci are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 2.23 for Qarabag. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +6.7%. This match finished 2-1.

Neftci vs Qarabag Prediction— Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa

Match Preview & Prediction

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