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Bhayangkara S. vs Persib Prediction— Indonesia - Liga 1

Regular Season - 30 ·Thursday, April 30, 2026, 12:00

Bhayangkara S.

PPG 2.14 · HOME

2 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Persib

PPG 1.64 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 50.0% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.3%0-111.7%0-27.3%0-33.0%0-4+1.2%1 1-010.5%1-113.1%1-28.2%1-33.4%1-4+1.4%2 2-05.9%2-17.3%2-24.6%2-31.9%2-4+0.8%3 3-02.2%3-12.7%3-21.7%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.0%4+-20.6%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.0% 20.8% 4.80 +48.8%

Draw 31.7% 27.8% 3.60 +14.1%

Away win 37.3% 61.7% 1.62 -39.6%

Over 2.5 42.2% 54.1% 1.85 -21.9%

Over 3.5 21.5% 31.3% 3.20 -31.2%

BTTS 50.0% 55.6% 1.80 -10.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -13.1%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-4

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob50.0%

D 32% / xG 1.1-1.2 / U2.5 42% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–0 9.3%

#3 0–1 11.7%

#4 1–0 10.5%

#5 1–2 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bhayangkara S.1.1

Persib1.3

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.2% · O3.5 PROB 21.5%

Form & verdict PPG

BHAYANGKARA S. · PPG 2.14

PERSIB · PPG 1.64

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.14) > Away GOOD (1.64)

Win probability 1X2

Bhayangkara S. (H) 31.0%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV +48.8%

Draw 31.7%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV +14.1%

Persib (A) 37.3%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -39.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bhayangkara S. face Persib in Indonesia - Liga 1 on Thursday, April 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bhayangkara S. a 31% chance, the draw 32% and Persib 37%, so Persib are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Bhayangkara S. and 1.3 for Persib (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 42% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bhayangkara S. are averaging 2.14 points per game versus 1.64 for Persib. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +48.8%. This match finished 2-4.

Bhayangkara S. vs Persib Prediction— Indonesia - Liga 1

Match Preview & Prediction

More Indonesia - Liga 1 Predictions