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FAR Rabat vs Raja Casablanca Prediction— Morocco - Botola Pro

Matchday 17 ·Thursday, April 30, 2026, 17:00

FAR Rabat

PPG 2.25 · HOME

LAST 5

WDDLD

2 – 1

FULL TIME

Raja Casablanca

PPG 1.71 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLDWW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-018.5%0-113.8%0-25.2%0-31.3%0-4+0.3%1 1-017.3%1-113.0%1-24.9%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-08.2%2-16.1%2-22.3%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-02.6%3-11.9%3-20.7%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.6%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.4% 48.8% 2.05 -25.4%

Draw 37.8% 33.9% 2.95 +11.5%

Away win 25.8% 28.2% 3.55 -8.4%

Over 2.5 24.0% 38.5% 2.60 -37.6%

Over 3.5 9.2% 22.2% 4.50 -58.6%

BTTS 34.1% 47.6% 2.10 -28.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 40%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 22.0%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob34.1%

H 36% / xG 0.9-0.8 / U2.5 24% / NoBTTS 34%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 18.5%

#2 1–0 17.3%

#3 1–1 13.0%

#4 0–1 13.8%

#5 2–0 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FAR Rabat0.9

Raja Casablanca0.8

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 24.0% · O3.5 PROB 9.2%

Form & verdict PPG

FAR RABAT · PPG 2.25

RAJA CASABLANCA · PPG 1.71

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

38%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.25) > Away GOOD (1.71)

Win probability 1X2

FAR Rabat (H) 36.4%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -25.4%

Draw 37.8%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV +11.5%

Raja Casablanca (A) 25.8%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -8.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

FAR Rabat face Raja Casablanca in Morocco - Botola Pro on Thursday, April 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FAR Rabat a 36% chance, the draw 38% and Raja Casablanca 26%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.9 for FAR Rabat and 0.8 for Raja Casablanca (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 24% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 34% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FAR Rabat are averaging 2.25 points per game versus 1.71 for Raja Casablanca. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +11.5%. This match finished 2-1.

FAR Rabat vs Raja Casablanca Prediction— Morocco - Botola Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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