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Al Kharitiyath vs Al Waab Prediction— Qatar - Second Division

Regular Season - 14 ·Thursday, April 30, 2026, 16:00

Al Kharitiyath

PPG 2.00 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Al Waab

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 63.8% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a clear edge.

+18.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-14.7%0-22.0%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-011.4%1-19.6%1-24.0%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.7%2-19.8%2-24.1%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-07.9%3-16.7%3-22.8%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-06.5%4+-15.4%4+-22.3%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.8% 54.1% 1.85 +18.0%

Draw 23.1% 28.6% 3.50 -19.1%

Away win 13.1% 28.6% 3.50 -54.1%

Over 2.5 55.0% 61.7% 1.62 -10.9%

Over 3.5 32.6% — — —

BTTS 50.9% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 6 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 33%

Score Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob50.9%

H 64% / xG 2.0-0.8 / O2.5 55% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.7%

#2 1–1 9.6%

#3 1–0 11.4%

#4 2–1 9.8%

#5 3–0 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Kharitiyath2.0

Al Waab0.8

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 55.0% · O3.5 PROB 32.6%

Form & verdict PPG

AL KHARITIYATH · PPG 2.00

AL WAAB · PPG 1.33

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.00) > Away AVERAGE (1.33)

Win probability 1X2

Al Kharitiyath (H) 63.8%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV +18.0%

Draw 23.1%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -19.1%

Al Waab (A) 13.1%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -54.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Kharitiyath face Al Waab in Qatar - Second Division on Thursday, April 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Kharitiyath a 64% chance, the draw 23% and Al Waab 13%, so Al Kharitiyath are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Al Kharitiyath and 0.8 for Al Waab (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Kharitiyath are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.33 for Al Waab. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +18.0%. This match finished 0-1.

Al Kharitiyath vs Al Waab Prediction— Qatar - Second Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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