Al Akhdoud vs Al Ittifaq Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Saudi-Arabia - Pro League Regular Season - 30 Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City· Najran Thursday, April 30, 2026 16:00

Al Akhdoud PPG 0.80

1-3 MISS

Al Ittifaq PPG 1.14

Home· +15.4% ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Akhdoud face Al Ittifaq in Saudi-Arabia - Pro League on Thursday, April 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Akhdoud a 30% chance, the draw 28% and Al Ittifaq 43%, so Al Ittifaq are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Al Akhdoud and 1.6 for Al Ittifaq (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Akhdoud are averaging 0.80 points per game versus 1.14 for Al Ittifaq. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +15.4%. This match finished 1-3.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 29.6%

Odds: 3.90 EV: +15.4%

Draw 27.5%

Odds: 3.75 EV: +3.1%

Away 42.9%

Odds: 1.83 EV: -21.5%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Away ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 57.2% Odds: 1.65 -5.6%

Over 3.5 34.8% Odds: 2.60 -9.5%

BTTS 61.1% Odds: 1.55 -5.3%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 1-2 ✘

3rd 2-1 ✘

4th 0-2 ✘

5th 0-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Al Akhdoud

1.34

Al Ittifaq

1.64

Model SuggestionBTTS -5.3% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -5.3% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Home (+15.4%) — probability too low to qualify.

Verdict & Form

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.80) vs Away AVERAGE (1.14)