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Al Akhdoud vs Al Ittifaq Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Matchday 30 ·Thursday, April 30, 2026, 16:00

Al Akhdoud

PPG 0.80 · HOME

LAST 5

LLDWL

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Al Ittifaq

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWLD

// Model verdict

BTTS 64% chance

Model probability 61.1% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.1%0-18.4%0-26.9%0-33.7%0-4+2.2%1 1-06.8%1-111.2%1-29.2%1-35.0%1-4+3.0%2 2-04.6%2-17.5%2-26.1%2-33.3%2-4+2.0%3 3-02.0%3-13.3%3-22.7%3-31.5%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.5%4+-21.2%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.6% 25.6% 3.90 +15.4%

Draw 27.5% 26.7% 3.75 +3.1%

Away win 42.9% 54.6% 1.83 -21.5%

Over 2.5 57.2% 60.6% 1.65 -5.6%

Over 3.5 34.8% 38.5% 2.60 -9.5%

BTTS 61.1% 64.5% 1.55 -5.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 78 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -20.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob61.1%

A 43% / xG 1.3-1.6 / O2.5 57% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 1–2 9.2%

#3 2–1 7.5%

#4 0–2 6.9%

#5 0–0 5.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Akhdoud1.3

Al Ittifaq1.6

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 57.2% · O3.5 PROB 34.8%

Form & verdict PPG

AL AKHDOUD · PPG 0.80

AL ITTIFAQ · PPG 1.14

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

Chance this pick lands

64%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.80) vs Away AVERAGE (1.14)

Win probability 1X2

Al Akhdoud (H) 29.6%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV +15.4%

Draw 27.5%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV +3.1%

Al Ittifaq (A) 42.9%

ODDS 1.83 · IMPLIED 54.6% EV -21.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Akhdoud face Al Ittifaq in Saudi-Arabia - Pro League on Thursday, April 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Akhdoud a 30% chance, the draw 28% and Al Ittifaq 43%, so Al Ittifaq are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Al Akhdoud and 1.6 for Al Ittifaq (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Akhdoud are averaging 0.80 points per game versus 1.14 for Al Ittifaq. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +15.4%. This match finished 1-3.

Al Akhdoud vs Al Ittifaq Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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