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Difaa El Jadida vs R. Zemamra Prediction— Morocco - Botola Pro

Matchday 17 ·Thursday, April 30, 2026, 15:00

Difaa El Jadida

PPG 1.50 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDDL

2 – 1

FULL TIME

R. Zemamra

PPG 1.13 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDDDD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.4%0-111.0%0-24.9%0-31.5%0-4+0.4%1 1-014.8%1-113.2%1-25.9%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-08.9%2-17.9%2-23.5%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-03.5%3-13.2%3-21.4%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.2%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.1% 39.2% 2.55 +4.8%

Draw 33.5% 35.1% 2.85 -4.5%

Away win 25.4% 35.7% 2.80 -28.9%

Over 2.5 34.7% 34.7% 2.88 -0.1%

Over 3.5 15.9% 22.2% 4.50 -28.4%

BTTS 43.2% 45.5% 2.20 -5.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 40%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 22.0%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob43.2%

H 41% / xG 1.2-0.9 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 43%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 0–0 12.4%

#3 1–0 14.8%

#4 0–1 11.0%

#5 2–0 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Difaa El Jadida1.2

R. Zemamra0.9

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.7% · O3.5 PROB 15.9%

Form & verdict PPG

DIFAA EL JADIDA · PPG 1.50

R. ZEMAMRA · PPG 1.13

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

43%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.50) > Away AVERAGE (1.13)

Win probability 1X2

Difaa El Jadida (H) 41.1%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV +4.8%

Draw 33.5%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV -4.5%

R. Zemamra (A) 25.4%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -28.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Difaa El Jadida face R. Zemamra in Morocco - Botola Pro on Thursday, April 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Difaa El Jadida a 41% chance, the draw 34% and R. Zemamra 25%, so Difaa El Jadida are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Difaa El Jadida and 0.9 for R. Zemamra (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 43% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Difaa El Jadida are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.13 for R. Zemamra. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +4.8%. This match finished 2-1.

Difaa El Jadida vs R. Zemamra Prediction— Morocco - Botola Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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