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Z. Sosnowiec vs Stalowa Wola Prediction— Poland - II Liga - East

Regular Season - 30 ·Thursday, April 30, 2026, 16:00

Z. Sosnowiec

PPG 1.00 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Stalowa Wola

PPG 1.07 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 62.9% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.5%0-17.8%0-26.7%0-33.8%0-4+2.4%1 1-06.2%1-110.7%1-29.2%1-35.3%1-4+3.3%2 2-04.3%2-17.4%2-26.3%2-33.6%2-4+2.3%3 3-02.0%3-13.4%3-22.9%3-31.7%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.6%4+-21.4%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.3% 38.2% 2.62 -23.2%

Draw 26.7% 32.3% 3.10 -17.2%

Away win 44.0% 43.5% 2.30 +1.2%

Over 2.5 59.7% — — —

Over 3.5 37.4% — — —

BTTS 62.9% 64.5% 1.55 -2.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -7.9%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob62.9%

A 44% / xG 1.4-1.7 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.7%

#2 1–2 9.2%

#3 2–1 7.4%

#4 0–2 6.7%

#5 2–2 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Z. Sosnowiec1.4

Stalowa Wola1.7

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 37.4%

Form & verdict PPG

Z. SOSNOWIEC · PPG 1.00

STALOWA WOLA · PPG 1.07

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away AVERAGE (1.07)

Win probability 1X2

Z. Sosnowiec (H) 29.3%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -23.2%

Draw 26.7%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -17.2%

Stalowa Wola (A) 44.0%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV +1.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Z. Sosnowiec face Stalowa Wola in Poland - II Liga - East on Thursday, April 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Z. Sosnowiec a 29% chance, the draw 27% and Stalowa Wola 44%, so Stalowa Wola are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Z. Sosnowiec and 1.7 for Stalowa Wola (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Z. Sosnowiec are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.07 for Stalowa Wola. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +1.2%. This match finished 0-0.

Z. Sosnowiec vs Stalowa Wola Prediction— Poland - II Liga - East

Match Preview & Prediction

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