Today / Qatar - Second Division / Al Khor vs Al Markhiya

Al Khor vs Al Markhiya Prediction— Qatar - Second Division

Regular Season - 14 ·Thursday, April 30, 2026, 16:00

Al Khor

PPG 1.33 · HOME

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Al Markhiya

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.33), Away GOOD (1.50)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.8%0-17.4%0-25.8%0-33.0%0-4+1.6%1 1-07.1%1-111.0%1-28.6%1-34.4%1-4+2.4%2 2-05.3%2-18.2%2-26.4%2-33.3%2-4+1.8%3 3-02.6%3-14.1%3-23.2%3-31.6%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-12.1%4+-21.6%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.9% 38.5% 2.60 -9.3%

Draw 27.4% 30.8% 3.25 -10.9%

Away win 37.7% 42.0% 2.38 -10.3%

Over 2.5 58.6% 57.1% 1.75 +2.5%

Over 3.5 36.2% — — —

BTTS 62.7% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 6 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 33%

Score Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob62.7%

A 38% / xG 1.5-1.6 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.0%

#2 1–2 8.6%

#3 2–1 8.2%

#4 0–0 4.8%

#5 2–2 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Khor1.5

Al Markhiya1.6

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 58.6% · O3.5 PROB 36.2%

Form & verdict PPG

AL KHOR · PPG 1.33

AL MARKHIYA · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.33), Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Al Khor (H) 34.9%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -9.3%

Draw 27.4%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -10.9%

Al Markhiya (A) 37.7%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV -10.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Khor face Al Markhiya in Qatar - Second Division on Thursday, April 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Khor a 35% chance, the draw 27% and Al Markhiya 38%, so Al Markhiya are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Al Khor and 1.6 for Al Markhiya (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Khor are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.50 for Al Markhiya. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +2.5%. This match finished 0-3.

Al Khor vs Al Markhiya Prediction— Qatar - Second Division

Match Preview & Prediction

More Qatar - Second Division Predictions