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PSIM Yogyakarta vs Persita Prediction— Indonesia - Liga 1

Regular Season - 30 ·Thursday, April 30, 2026, 08:30

PSIM Yogyakarta

PPG 1.36 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

Persita

PPG 1.07 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.4%0-110.6%0-26.0%0-32.2%0-4+0.8%1 1-011.6%1-113.1%1-27.4%1-32.8%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.2%2-18.1%2-24.6%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-03.0%3-13.3%3-21.9%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.3%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.8% 46.5% 2.15 -20.9%

Draw 31.8% 29.9% 3.35 +6.5%

Away win 31.4% 33.3% 3.00 -5.8%

Over 2.5 42.0% 54.1% 1.85 -22.3%

Over 3.5 21.3% 31.3% 3.20 -31.8%

BTTS 49.9% 59.9% 1.67 -16.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -13.1%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob49.9%

D 32% / xG 1.2-1.1 / U2.5 42% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–0 9.4%

#3 1–0 11.6%

#4 0–1✓ 10.6%

#5 2–1 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

PSIM Yogyakarta1.2

Persita1.1

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.0% · O3.5 PROB 21.3%

Form & verdict PPG

PSIM YOGYAKARTA · PPG 1.36

PERSITA · PPG 1.07

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.36), Away AVERAGE (1.07)

Win probability 1X2

PSIM Yogyakarta (H) 36.8%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -20.9%

Draw 31.8%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV +6.5%

Persita (A) 31.4%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -5.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

PSIM Yogyakarta face Persita in Indonesia - Liga 1 on Thursday, April 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives PSIM Yogyakarta a 37% chance, the draw 32% and Persita 31%, so PSIM Yogyakarta are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for PSIM Yogyakarta and 1.1 for Persita (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 42% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, PSIM Yogyakarta are averaging 1.36 points per game versus 1.07 for Persita. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +6.5%. This match finished 0-1.

PSIM Yogyakarta vs Persita Prediction— Indonesia - Liga 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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