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Baku Sporting vs Difai Agsu Prediction— Azerbaijan - Birinci Dasta

Regular Season - 24 ·Thursday, April 30, 2026, 12:30

Baku Sporting

PPG 1.83 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Difai Agsu

PPG 0.45 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 65.1% vs bookmaker-implied 80.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.1%0-14.4%0-21.9%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-010.8%1-19.3%1-24.0%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.4%2-19.8%2-24.2%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-08.1%3-16.9%3-23.0%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-07.0%4+-16.0%4+-22.6%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 65.1% 80.0% 1.25 -18.6%

Draw 22.3% 20.0% 5.00 +11.5%

Away win 12.7% 12.5% 8.00 +1.6%

Over 2.5 57.2% — — —

Over 3.5 34.8% — — —

BTTS 52.1% 48.8% 2.05 +6.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -1.1%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.1%

H 65% / xG 2.1-0.9 / O2.5 57% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.4%

#2 1–1✓ 9.3%

#3 2–1 9.8%

#4 1–0 10.8%

#5 3–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Baku Sporting2.1

Difai Agsu0.9

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 57.2% · O3.5 PROB 34.8%

Form & verdict PPG

BAKU SPORTING · PPG 1.83

DIFAI AGSU · PPG 0.45

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in GOOD form (1.83), Away POOR (0.45) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Baku Sporting (H) 65.1%

ODDS 1.25 · IMPLIED 80.0% EV -18.6%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +11.5%

Difai Agsu (A) 12.7%

ODDS 8.00 · IMPLIED 12.5% EV +1.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Baku Sporting face Difai Agsu in Azerbaijan - Birinci Dasta on Thursday, April 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Baku Sporting a 65% chance, the draw 22% and Difai Agsu 13%, so Baku Sporting are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Baku Sporting and 0.9 for Difai Agsu (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Baku Sporting are averaging 1.83 points per game versus 0.45 for Difai Agsu. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +11.5%. This match finished 1-1.

Baku Sporting vs Difai Agsu Prediction— Azerbaijan - Birinci Dasta

Match Preview & Prediction

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