Baku Sporting vs Difai Agsu Prediction— Azerbaijan - Birinci Dasta

Match Preview & Prediction

Baku Sporting face Difai Agsu in Azerbaijan - Birinci Dasta on Thursday, April 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Baku Sporting a 65% chance, the draw 22% and Difai Agsu 13%, so Baku Sporting are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Baku Sporting and 0.9 for Difai Agsu (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Baku Sporting are averaging 1.83 points per game versus 0.45 for Difai Agsu. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +11.5%. This match finished 1-1.