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VfB Lubeck vs Drochtersen.A. Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Nord

North - 32 ·Thursday, April 30, 2026, 17:30

VfB Lubeck

PPG 1.57 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Drochtersen.A.

PPG 1.73 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 72.3% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.3%0-14.9%0-25.1%0-33.6%0-4+3.0%1 1-03.9%1-18.2%1-28.5%1-35.9%1-4+5.0%2 2-03.2%2-16.8%2-27.1%2-34.9%2-4+4.2%3 3-01.8%3-13.7%3-23.9%3-32.7%3-4+2.3%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-12.3%4+-22.4%4+-31.6%4+-4+1.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.8% 32.3% 3.10 -7.6%

Draw 23.4% 26.3% 3.80 -11.1%

Away win 46.8% 51.3% 1.95 -8.7%

Over 2.5 72.3% 67.6% 1.48 +7.0%

Over 3.5 51.6% 45.5% 2.20 +13.5%

BTTS 72.2% 69.4% 1.44 +4.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 77%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 3.3%

Bet Hit 72%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 61%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob72.2%

A 47% / xG 1.7-2.1 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 72%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 8.2%

#2 1–2 8.5%

#3 2–2 7.1%

#4 2–1 6.8%

#5 1–3 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

VfB Lubeck1.7

Drochtersen.A.2.1

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.3% · O3.5 PROB 51.6%

Form & verdict PPG

VFB LUBECK · PPG 1.57

DROCHTERSEN.A. · PPG 1.73

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.57), Away GOOD (1.73)

Win probability 1X2

VfB Lubeck (H) 29.8%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -7.6%

Draw 23.4%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -11.1%

Drochtersen.A. (A) 46.8%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -8.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

VfB Lubeck face Drochtersen.A. in Germany - Regionalliga - Nord on Thursday, April 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives VfB Lubeck a 30% chance, the draw 23% and Drochtersen.A. 47%, so Drochtersen.A. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for VfB Lubeck and 2.1 for Drochtersen.A. (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 72% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, VfB Lubeck are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 1.73 for Drochtersen.A.. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +13.5%. This match finished 1-1.

VfB Lubeck vs Drochtersen.A. Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Nord

Match Preview & Prediction

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