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Sebail vs Cebrayil Prediction— Azerbaijan - Birinci Dasta

Regular Season - 24 ·Thursday, April 30, 2026, 13:00

Sebail

PPG 2.00 · HOME

6 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Cebrayil

PPG 0.42 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 60.8% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.4%0-15.0%0-22.3%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-010.7%1-19.9%1-24.6%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.7%2-19.9%2-24.6%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-07.1%3-16.6%3-23.1%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-05.6%4+-15.2%4+-22.4%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 60.8% 76.9% 1.30 -21.0%

Draw 23.9% 20.0% 5.00 +19.5%

Away win 15.3% 15.4% 6.50 -0.5%

Over 2.5 56.0% — — —

Over 3.5 33.6% — — —

BTTS 53.8% 51.3% 1.95 +4.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -1.1%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 6-0

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob53.8%

H 61% / xG 2.0-0.9 / O2.5 56% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.9%

#2 2–0 10.7%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 10.7%

#5 3–0 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sebail2.0

Cebrayil0.9

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 56.0% · O3.5 PROB 33.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SEBAIL · PPG 2.00

CEBRAYIL · PPG 0.42

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=60.8%

Win probability 1X2

Sebail (H) 60.8%

ODDS 1.30 · IMPLIED 76.9% EV -21.0%

Draw 23.9%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +19.5%

Cebrayil (A) 15.3%

ODDS 6.50 · IMPLIED 15.4% EV -0.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sebail face Cebrayil in Azerbaijan - Birinci Dasta on Thursday, April 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sebail a 61% chance, the draw 24% and Cebrayil 15%, so Sebail are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Sebail and 0.9 for Cebrayil (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sebail are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.42 for Cebrayil. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +19.5%. This match finished 6-0.

Sebail vs Cebrayil Prediction— Azerbaijan - Birinci Dasta

Match Preview & Prediction

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